All viruses have the potential to live on hard surfaces, such as metal and plastic, longer than on fabrics and other soft surfaces. In fact, infectious flu viruses can survive on tissues for only 15 minutes. Viruses tend to also live longer in areas with lower temperatures, low humidity, and low sunlight.
How long these germs are actually capable of infecting you is a different story. In general, viruses are not likely to be a danger on surfaces very long. In fact, while cold viruses can live for several days, their ability to cause infection decreases after approximately 24 hours, and after only five minutes, the amount of flu virus on hands fall to low levels, making transmission much less likely.
Bolded seems like it could matter. But are their researchers who think it doesn’t?
SARS follows the same pattern as in the earlier reply for flu.
Some speculation that our air conditioned lives are pretty tasty for viral survival.
If it is seasonal and only a small fraction becomes immune in this first wave, then we can expect a 1918 pattern that even without the increased virulence will make the coming fall and winter F-U-N. It does give a few months for a vaccine moonshot to work enough for ring immunity (health care workers and contacts of the infected). But it is a moonshot giving the short timing.
I would like to know this too. Because “really really bad” implies a prediction far worse than what the average informed person expects.
So far, things have been “really really bad” in Iran. Everywhere else, things have just been bad in the ways we already knew they would be.
These super vague assertions hinting at some unspeakable apocalypse are kind of annoying. We know there are going to be many thousands of deaths, and we know that the peak has yet to hit most of the western world. That’s already plenty awful. wtf is the point of constantly making it sound 10x worse than what known evidence suggests?
Most of the experts I’ve read are pretty resigned that this will be endemic. The only way it’s going away is to develop a cure, a vaccine, or enough people get it and develop immunity that there is herd immunity. The first two aren’t happening at least in widely available volume by the fall. The last is only happening if it rages uncontrollably all through the summer. If the seasonality actually slows it down, it will likely ramp back up like other viruses do seasonally.
Can we all stop blindly assuming this will behave the same way the 1918 flu did? There’s zero reason to assume this.Far more likely that we develop antibodies and it becomes less fatal and this just becomes one of the regular respiratory bugs that goes around. That’s assuming it becomes endemic, which we don’t know.
If we were responding to this like Korea, I wouldn’t nearly be so worried. I’m afraid (but not 100% sure) that it’s too late for us and we will have multiple (maybe several, many, dozens) of these hot spots to contend with at once. We will all have to socially distance from each other. Many people won’t be able to do this and work. Many of our parents and grandparents will die. Since people are not working, supplies may run low. Health workers may stop working or be too sick to work. Society will be stressed and may breakdown in small or large ways.
Not saying this will all happen for sure. But this stuff is in play if we don’t get it together like yesterday.
Additionally, life in the hard hit areas of Korea and Italy is certainly not “business as usual” with a bit of an inconvenience. I believe those areas are quarantined and movements are restricted (Italy for sure). Probably some bad things going on.
a lot of similar respiratory viruses follow this pattern. Not assuming it is criminal.
Anything bad that doesn’t happen is then a bonus. But absolutely no excuse to not prepare for it.
A. No seasonality. It just goes about its merry way until it burns itself out and/or herd immunity.
B. Seasonality. Well discussed here already. If we get a breather we better spend the time preparing for the fall.
C. Seasonal and goes away for some unknown reason (mutations can be less lethal). Hooray! More people love and savior Trump gets annoited King.
(Long term its likely it becomes less lethal between acquired immunity, vaccination, and a tendency to things to become less lethal long term-killing too many hosts doesn’t typically lead too a successful evolutionary outcome over time).
In my personal opinion, the parallels with 1918 are strong- emerges in late winter, infects a lot of people but not enough for herd immunity but perhaps enough for some mutation frequency that can be good or bad, and then round 2 in a still mostly non-immune populace.
Maybe I’ve read too much about 1918. What’s going to happen is going to happen (especially with our low intervention to date). Prepare for the worst.
Your skin is incredibly good at repelling disease and germs in general. This thing makes you sick through your eyes, nose, mouth only, as far as I’m aware. There is no need to be sanitizing every 15 minutes like some ITT. You will NOT get sick by touching dirty stuff. You get sick when you touch your eyes, or eat with your hands, or someone sneezes of coughs directly on you.
What? No. Don’t know if you’ve noticed, but we get multiple respiratory viruses that go worldwide every single year and not one of them has ever behaved like the 1918 flu that disproportionately killed young people. We’ve never seen anything like that. Just stupid fucking speculation based on nothing but fear. It’s like assuming a giant asteroid will cause a mass extinction this year because it did it once and that is the pattern.
But you’ve already touched the steering wheel, gear shift, your jeans, whatever else. Just don’t touch your face. Keep a box of tissues near by if absolutely necessary.
Yeah, exactly this. It’s impossible not to occasionally rub your eye or touch your face. I figure sanitizing after touching surfaces other people have touched and before touching your other stuff (phone, surfaces in your car, etc.) is a no brainer.
