Coronavirus (COVID-19)

I just illustrated how you’ve been inconsistent

and I don’t know what type of service you think you’re providing the forum, with ever-contradictory noise from who knows what worthless source, but how 'bout you get over your fucking self and stfu

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Correct answer is that they’re…


…made in China.

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I don’t see how? He was commenting on something I posted, and made no inconsistent statement as far as I can tell.

if people are contagious while asymptomatic, as the chinese health minister is saying, it’s pretty bad.

that kind of thing is possible; herpes virus works that way. it’s a big reason 2/3 of the world has hsv1.

what worries me is i don’t understand why china would tell its people such a thing if it weren’t true. it’s knowledge that can cause a mass panic, which china typically works hard to avoid. if china was saying, “don’t worry, everything’s fine, business as usual” i’d be much more skeptical about their official statements.

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I mean, he may be right. There’s a hell of a range for how this plays out.

how would something like that be established in a chronology of actions-taken thus far by the Chinese government / Health Organizations?

the contagious while asymptomatic discovery obvs

How would being contagious while asymptomatic actually work with this virus? Somebody up thread pointed out AIDS as an example of a virus with this characteristic, but that is spread by contact with blood, semen, etc. How would this thing spread if the host was not yet coughing, sneezing, etc.? Except maybe only to people that the host is very close to. But that would seem to prevent it spreading very fast like a normal flu.

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probably just based on doctors talking to patients, idk. i haven’t read any journal articles about like the molecular mechanism of this virus and i don’t expect to for a few months at least

at which point it’ll probably be over one way or the other

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I guess it’s not too tough lol

  1. monitor a patient who’s tested positive but isn’t showing signs
  2. see if their sneezes emit the virus before they become symptomatic
  3. or something

Plenty of ways to swap fluids without sneezing. Kissing, sharing food/drink, etc. Maybe the host gets it on their hand somehow and spreads it from there? Idk, but sounds like the incels will be the ones rebuilding humanity’s population

Sure, but as I mentioned I would think that would greatly slow the spread of the virus as compared to blasting off a sneeze on the subway, bus, crowded market, etc.

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:thinking: 2 hours ago

https://twitter.com/EricCheungwc/status/1221964837833494528?s=20

so with that mitigating factor, I don’t see how it markedly compounds the spread. but beetlegoat says otherwise

60 milly in Hubei province (2015 data)

maybe, like hiv, the virus can start an infection from extremely low levels. like rn we can’t even measure how little hiv is in hiv+ people taking the drug cocktail. but if they stop taking the meds it’ll come back in force, from like, an extremely small starting point. so small that our current technology can’t even measure it.

could be a symptomatic person comes in contact with a healthy person, infects them in a way that can’t even be measured for weeks leading up to detectable levels of it growing in a person. and instead of each person infecting 2 others, one person is infecting 50 and they don’t even realize it until after they think they’re in the clear

could be this virus is so virulent it can be released into the air and transmitted to other people just through normal breathing.

pure speculation on my part. again, i’m not aware of a single scientific paper on this virus yet.

It being a retrovirus, the amount of active virus in hiv+ people on suppression therapy may actually be zero, no?

what other viruses spread simply via breathing?

I wonder during natural inhalation and exhalation, what amount of liquid constituent is even present in aspirate ?

Filed under, learn something new every day.

my understanding is with hiv, a study was done where they backed off on the cocktail at different times and they found it follows a predictable rate of replication consistent with it being at lower-than-observable concentrations when it appears to be 0.0 on a blood test. like it’ll be 0.0 for weeks and they can predict when it’ll hit 0.001 based on when they stop the drugs.

i don’t think fully clearing the virus is possible, followed by healthy cells transcribing new viruses. i could be wrong tho, i’m not looking this up rn

Your article ‘first published January 18, 2018’

absolutely appalling how little is known.

this article is from 4 days later, January 22, 2018

The common belief is that flu is spread through coughs and sneezes from infected individuals and from touching surfaces contaminated with the virus.
However, the new study reveals that people with the flu can shed the infectious virus into the air around them just by breathing.

the fresh, new, 2-year-old study

Do they ever partition the R₀ based on what he’s suggesting? In other words, let R₀ = R₀ₓ + R₀ᵧ, where R₀ is the (weighted) average reproduction number, and (R₀ₓ, R₀ᵧ) represent reproduction numbers for some subtype factors like incubated and symptomatic. Seems like you could set it up to arrive at the same grand mean but with some pretty different patterns of contagion by changing subtype properties.