WHO estimates a 2-3% mortality rate for Spanish flu. So if 95%CI for Covid19 mortality is 0.5-4% then yeah, ‘Spanish flu level pandemic’ is still in our range given what we know at the moment. But so is ‘slightly worse flu season for a while’.
I was conceivably thinking about starting my road trip around the world again - in Europe - by the fall. It was going to start by selling my condo, figuring out what to do with my stuff, arrange shipping for my car. Right now I’m not planning anything.
Our small company was supposed to exhibit at a large international conference (10,000+ attendees) in the US in May. So far the conference hasn’t been cancelled but their page says they’re monitoring the developments of the virus. It would suck for us if it’s cancelled, but obviously it’s better to be safe than sorry.
It seems like a lot of the economic disruption is going to be pointless barn-door-closing and everyone is going to get coronavirus anyways, except we will also have tanked the economy.
Extreme measures are justified to possibly prevent a pandemic, but once the virus is everywhere, what is the point?