Awww sweet. Free protien!
Thanks for the analysis. I can never make sense out that mumbo jumbo. I read the sentence below from the summary and it’s hard to wrap my brain around that meaning from just under 1% to up to 4%. My brain thinks, oh must be very near 1% with a little upside or downside possible.
“Using estimates of underlying infection prevalence in Wuhan at the end of January derived from testing of passengers on repatriation flights to Japan and Germany, we adjusted the estimates of CFR from either the early epidemic in Hubei Province, or from cases reported outside mainland China, to obtain estimates of the overall CFR in all infections (asymptomatic or symptomatic) of approximately 1% (95% confidence interval 0.5%-4%).”
This take seems super bad
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I think we can expect about everybody on the ship to have been exposed to it. Crew are mostly younger (20’s-30’s) half of them live 4 to a 8x10 cabin. They have procedures for containment of a norovirus breakout, bot not this. crew have still been eating in the mess together AFAIK. Lots of olds on Princess, longer and Asian cruises most of all, usually something like a third on board (Inc crew) over 70 iirc.
I hope she’s not the same person as the woman I work with who also had to do exactly that.
JT has some genuine concerns. Especially for someone self-employed. Being prepared and taking precautions is a hell of a lot better idea than “just dont worry about it, im sure everything will be fine!”
Shit. I have to go buy my breadeggsmilk today, don’t I?
EDIT: More like souppastaducttapewater
Eh, I think as members of an online message board we dont really know who is in a great position to say “everything will be fine” especially since NorCal seems to be the epicenter here in the US.
Because there aren’t enough data yet to have a reassuring degree of confidence that your assessment is accurate. Its nice to think things will be fine, but there are people here who at the very least almost definitely know somebody who knows somebody who will lose a family member within a couple of months.
I saw on Instagram that a friend of mine is in town from Tokyo. Usually my reaction to that would be to reach out to him to get coffee, but I think I’m going to skip it this time. I’d feel pretty bad about this, but he hasn’t reached out to me either.
Mods: do a merge on all jman and Lapka posts.
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My work has people back and forth from Japan all the time and people visiting from Japan every week. Although we just instituted a travel pause to Japan/China for the next couple of months.
Cruise ship full of olds only has an 0.7% fatality rate is reassuring, although the sample size isn’t great.
It seems likely to end up being 2-4% when it all shakes out over the next several weeks.
True. The gold standard for sample sizes for binary outcomes I aim for in sports betting is 100 winners, or in this case, deaths - I know, I know 
, though 50-75 can be useful for a rough indication, so this sample is much too small unfortunately. I mean fortunately. Fuck it, you know what I mean.
Those poor passengers deserve a bit of rungood.
Seems that the cool thing is to post how scared you aren’t about something that others are concerned about.
What’s known doesn’t scare people. It’s what’s unknown that does. There’s a ton that’s unknown and will likely remain so for a while as science catches up and figures out the answers.
Anybody with any kind of absolutist takes on how bad/not bad this will be are more annoying than anything else because they know exactly as much as people who are concerned do. Yet, one group feels entitled to patronize the other for worrying.
Dude wtf it’s normal to worry about friends’ well being and you don’t know its as mild as you say it is, nobody does yet.
I suspect you’re right, but a couple of guys here are still drawing live (if thin) to being directly affected by it so maybe chill with the thisisfine.jpg
Enough time hasn’t passed yet. This disease takes time to kill.
The what are you going to do takes are both correct and really fucking stupid.
If you’re on a plane that’s going down over the ocean. Turning to the person next to you and smugly telling them “there’s nothing you can do”…
Like. Yeah. I guess??
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If it actually stays at that rate it would be great all things considered.