Sigh.
I’ll probably go 4 picks. Hopefully hit 1 and $50 in FB leaves me +
To fully max EV, you could do 4 early games and add late games if needed. Average is a bit over 2 HRs per game, so 4 likely to be short.
Just a sad trend. You could blindly bet 15 dudes at +400 and at the end of the season you win money
Only good late games are Lad/Col or Laa/Sea.
With cold weather I’m not going to go chasing
I went with 5 games targeting good lines in games with high run totals.
I know it’s early in the season but there are some really wacky HR lines out there across the various books. An astute line shopper can probably find some +EV bets in there (I saw one guy that was +280 on FD be +900 on Caesars?).
And on that note Fan Duel’s lines seem to be abnormally shitty for the HR market, but I’m also noticing they tend to favor/slight the same guys as last year. 2 names I picked today so far are Matt Chapman, and Wilson Contreras, guys I remember betting almost weekly last year.
took the bet rivers insurance (it’s not as great this year either, need an extra base hit instead of any hit) on Teoscar Hernandez at +340 (other books 290 or lower).
Fanduel was Judge and someone in the reds/cubs game I forgot who it was. Maybe will throw in one other if I find it, not gonna chase this in cold weather.
edit–maybe for part 1 I should’ve taken Julio Rodriguez, also better than other books and hits doubles sometimes.
well at least there’s zero chance for the games fanduels lines really suck or the oakland games
as for best lines for fandue vs elsewherel, Santander, Seager (adolis garcia is fine was used a lot last year too), Judge is fine, I’m sure there others I kinda don’t care to look
well at least I can skip the @Oak/SF games without even glancing at them no matter what now
Seems normal to me for them as there were entire games last year that were unplayable even with the promo.
so the forgot who it was cause I never heard of him before hit
eat it fanduel, that big $25 max
Looking like 1-5 on week 1 but it’s Yandy Diaz at +630 so that’s a win. Not bad.
Hit Voster and Mountcastle and reached $50 in FB. Good start so far.
Plenty of HR hit overall, plenty of predictables.
Week 2 I decided to go with 4 games instead of 5. Hit Ryan McMahon tonight which puts me +$35 on the bets + the freebies. It’s definitely not the epic promo it used to be but still +EV enough that I’ll do it. I’m a whore for free EV.
I did 4 as well and hit Schwarber +400. But went 0/4 on my friends side who I chop this promo with. Definitely way less fun than betting every game last year.
three of my four picks dingered and the $50 in free bets
Not as fun but still a +$325 day or so (splitting the free bet in half) on $100 wagered is a good day.
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Nice. I’ve hit one dinger the entire season across two accounts. Not having fun.
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I was 2 for 4 yesterday, and am 4/13 overall. It’s been lucrative. 4 games, choosing games with highest O/U seems to be working well.
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I haven’t hit a dinger bet all season. 0-for-17 on dinger Tuesday (I just got limited to $50 a day, so probably saved me money), and then have missed a few other random dinger promo bets.
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kambi (bet rivers) still has dbacks to win the west at +2300
1000 more than most places.
They rejected more than my big fat bet of $7. Will it win, probably not, do I think they’ll stop sending mad bum out there soon if they’re still in first? Yes, yes I do.
only 15 minutes to get in but I think bet rivers boost of NBA highest point +110 vs homeruns today is +EV (it’s cold out there, lots of not so great dinger weather)
they let me put $4 on it. Wheeeee
it’s so cold I bet a dinger in a tigers game (road in a dome), I never do that ffs
SHIP THE FOUR DOLLARS, sigh I need a second account for shit like that
only one dinger this week, hit said dinger in the tigers game, +900 bahahahahahhaahha only did 3 games, don’t think I got the full $50 this time but another good week.