US books have saquan at +175 and Geno +175-+200
Also love Goff +1400 on FD for a big longshot
day 1 in ohio, signed up for barstool, fd and dk.
seems like lots of free money to me 
$50 on browns having 1 passing yard, $100 on browns scoring 1 point. like $550ish in free bets spread over all 3.
edit: bet mgm has bet $10 and get $200. shit’s almost overwhelming 
So he’s exclusively on over 0.5 and you’re exclusively on under 0.5?
Yes
If I understand what he’s doing…
50 games x 4 months x 30 days = 6000 bets = $600,000 staked
POI = 50,000/600,000 = ~8%
?
That’s probably about right.
Well, with that number of bets you’re not running bad!
How can the vig free line be off by 8% over that large of a sample? Theoretically if the lines are accurate the result should be breakeven. -8% vs break even over 6,000 bets is probably several standard deviations from the mean assuming there is no actual edge there.
It could well be. No one really knows about the Greek football league and maybe Pinny’s models don’t apply so well there… Is he betting at Pinnacle or against you using Pinny odds?
We use the pinnacle odds with the juice removed using a no-vig calculator.
Assuming the lines aren’t off then what has happened would be similar to tossing a coin 6000 times and having it end up 3250 tails -2750 heads. That’s really unlikely.
You answered your own question and see my edit.
There are really only two options. The lines are off or I have run really really bad. Unless I am missing something. I tend to lean the former like you said.
I’m sorry to say there’s only really one option and it doesn’t reflect so well on your friend if this was his idea.
Expound please.
If this was his idea it’s pretty obvious to me he knew about the edge at zero vig in these small league game niche markets which is why he wants to exert his edge as often as possible.
There’s tons of historic data for people to be able to do this.
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I’d agree with Jal.
I’m only watching the top Greek teams when they play in Europe, so they’re often heavy dogs but I just wouldn’t be touching non top 5 leagues.
If someone wanted to start booking Serie B, League one, CPL or whatever action vs me I’d be really fucking skeptical.
this is quite the beat if the eagles don’t get the 1 seed
As a sports betting noob in Ohio, what are the best strategies for maximizing my return on these new sports book sign up bonuses?
The easy answer is: use this calculator
https://sssorc.github.io/oa/#/risk-free
Basically, you want to bet the risk free side on a +300 or longer line, and hedge ON A DIFFERENT BOOK. Looks for a low hold line to do this on. Ideally you lose the risk free side, win the hedge side, and then can convert the freebet in a similar fashion or let it ride.
ETA: thats assuming they are offering risk free first bets. I haven’t looked at Ohio offers yet. Make sure you don’t waste your first bet on something other than the full risk free promo bet.
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If he has access to good data wouldn’t surprise me to be able to model first half team totals and be very profitable.
I absolutely crush 1x2 with publicly available xg data for the EPL.
That’s from 2022. But I’ve held a 22% roi in soccer since 2020.
Guess it’s time I explore some first half team totals in obscure leagues now that fbref has more leagues data.
I really need to get access to stats bomb data :/
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