What’s the EV on this? I guess assuming -110?
Half the time we win 2500 and half the time we’re left with 2500 in free bets we expect to win about half the time?
You can either hedge it for ~$1400 risk free (assuming you lose the first bet and then need to convert the free bet), or just straight up yolo it on a +EV line.
Example:
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Better to hedge the free bets.
If this jets line goes to -3 I’m playing back on the Jags. Has the world not watched Zach Wilson play
Not one not two not three not four but five FanDuel odds-boosts today that all whiffed. Merry Xmas!
fanduel ones have sucked all month, they finally figured out how to clean house with those instead of us getting the money. I’ve mostly avoided them unless I thought they were really good… and I’m down $200 or so on them this month*. I’d bet many are over 1k down on just those in a month.
Didn’t play a single one of those either.
would be up a little if I wasn’t limited to 5 on some… sigh those won of course
World Cup boosts were pretty good at DK and FD. I don’t max them out, usually just throw a little bit down to give myself something to pull for in games. Just funny that not a single one hit yesterday. And one was lost in spectacular fashion.
They had a bunch today. Only played one that hit (Lebron 20+ and Rodgers/Tua for 200+ yards), and doing the Brady/Bucs one tonight.
Just follow one of the Twitter handles that grades the boosts and lets you know if they’re +EV. Yesterday sucked, but the Sunday before all 3 +300 hit (mentioned earlier in the thread).
Believe all the boosts today will be +305 if Nuggets win; +190 if they don’t. Solid day.
What is the account?
@BettheBoost and and @Thepromoguy123 are a couple I have found. There’s probably others. It seems pretty rare for a boost at the main books to not calculate as EV, so it’s probably not a terrible strategy to blindly max every one.
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Nuggets win so ended up +$305. Huge day if you have multiple accounts. Solid twitter handles that go over boosts and some additional promos
@Thepromoguy123
@ROIGuy123
@BoostRater
@PromoGuyMI
These guy track everything and almost always end in the black after every month. Usually never more than 1-2k/month nowadays with promos dying, but being >0 should be enough reason to follow.
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I can’t believe they haven’t been throttled on dk like I have for boosts yet or mgm for some of them like seriously. I’m promo banned on mgm and limited to like a buck on draftkings for boosts now.
I’ve mentioned a couple times itt but promoguymi’s discord is like $10/month or something, partners with roiguy123, EVBetsIN, a few other guys, and has tons of value not posted on Twitter
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Everyone is using multiple accounts
https://twitter.com/DoNotTail for hockey after dom from the athletic stopped posting publicly.
i do my own modeling for soccer/epl (use 538 though for euros/wc).
I have an interesting situation going on. I have a buddy that I have bet sports with for years. Basically what we do is bet $100 a game with an equal amount of bets we get to make as the other party. We can bet whatever we want as long as it is below +/- 300 at the vig free line.
About 5 months ago he started betting soccer tt overs for the 1h. And betting them all. Both teams in the same game and like 40-50 games a day. He has absolutely buried me doing this to the tune of about $50,000. I have had almost zero winning days since he started.
I’m what im missing here? Am i just running really bad? Is this a scam of some variety? Can the lines really be that for off? For reference he will do stuff like book all 10 of the 1h tt overs on a slate like this:
Is it a specific league? Can you see if 1h scoring or scoring in general is up in soccer this year compared to previous years?
It’s not a specific league but it they do seem to focus on the same subset of leagues. They are mostly the crappy leagues but not exclusively. He picked epl and french ligue 1 the last couple of days. I’m not sure off the top of my head how to see historical scoring for especially the worse leagues.
