I used to love the statsbomb podcast, was sad when they stopped it because they made fun of the dumb teams but then half the dumb teams started paying them
ya double pivot is pretty much the next best thing, for arsenal specific i do enjoy the arsenal vision podcast.
Yeah I pay for Arsenal vision but not for double pivot.
Hockey just mostly off Dom’s stuff?
Doubly impressive given you are a winning bettor who calls it soccer! Seriously though that is nuts considering how much money is flowing on those markets.
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So Caesars has a promotion for Ohio where you get up to $1500 in bet credit if your first bet loses.
https://www.caesars.com/sportsbook-and-casino/oh/
My question is if I lose the first bet and get the bet credit, if I win the second bet with the credit, do I only get the winnings or the bet credit too?
Someone on reddit made a very good guide of Ohioans:
Reddit - Dive into anything
Here’s a good guide for double-dipping: Repeating The Sign-up Offers | DarkHorse Odds
Sorry if this has already been posted.
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You only get winnings when you use free bets, not the stake amount.
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Winnings only. So if you want thelow risk way you bet 1500, hedge for a small loss. If your CZR bet loses, you now are:
-$1500 (czr bet)
+$1400ish (hedge bet)
+$1500 free bet
Then you convert the freebet for ~70% so your end result is:
-$1500 (czr bet)
+$1400ish (hedge bet)
+$1000 free bet conversion
NET = +$900
The only risk is that your initial CZR bet wins, in which case you lose whatever it cost to hedge. Betting on a larger underdog line helps lower that risk.
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Dark horse is a good tool for finding and converting free bets and they have a free trial
Hockey was Dom’s stuff, this season @donottail
I basically use in season data and compare to other models that weight previous seasons. Books heavily weight previous seasons, so I catch on to big changes in team strengths quicker. I have to put my thumbs on the scale and use some judgement calls at times especially early in the season. I’ve been profitable 4 straights years in epl. For world cups I just use 538.
I have the tools to use the model for other leagues but I’d have to do some tweaking to the spreadsheets to accommodate the stat formats from different sites which I’ve been too lazy to do.
I really need to learn python so I can just automate everything.
I use oddspedia to look at odds across betting sites, you could honestly probably be profitable by just line shopping and picking off lines that arent market consensus. I really really wish unabated would add EPL to their live odds page since its a much better product.
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speak of the devil heres a pod from ted knutson :D
Fanduel stale line alert
Kent St to win MAC basketball conference was -160 this morning. They won their conference opener, their closest opponent, Toledo lost at home.
The Kent St line dropped to -145. They’re probably 85% or so in my estimation to win the conference
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Conference prices aren’t up.
Hmm same line is showing for me in Illinois
Must be a state by state thing.
Im a huge golden flash fan now
FD seems to be the only book with MAC futures up, and Kent is still available at -145.
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Not sure how Barttorvik does vs the books, but it agrees with you.
Yeah Torvik has them at like 73% outright and 86% share.
Biggest reason I’ve liked them all along is they get 1 game against Toledo and it’s at home. So if they win that one, they win any H2H tiebreaker with Toledo for the conference title.