Does anyone here use Pointsbet? I have a promo where my first pointsbet will be refunded in freebets up to $1500 if I lose. I want to maximize the probability of winning or losing the the whole 1500. My instinct is to bet the over/under for a high scoring NCAAM game? Is there a better strategy?
Rams challenge first -115 on bovada
purely basing this off last weeks THROW THE FLAG even when it was unwinnable
also the pro bowl promotion on draftkings is in a different place, it’s in DK promotions not on the pro bowl game page (and it won’t let me bet the max of 25 dollars, sad)
more bovada SB props before I actually delve into things
-350 for no flea flicker, while I try to avoid gimmicky shit because in games everyone watches coaches love to do gimmicky shit, this one I do, the odds someone does a flea flicker is just too damn low
-450 for no kicker hits the upright/crossbar. No parkey so it’s good I think
-295 for no missed PAT (has to be from the 15 according to the rules)
Biggest edge I see immediately is figuring out if this batch of refs call holding or not
The EV of a risk free bet is maximized by Betting on a long shot. Typically moneylines in the +300 territory provide the best value.
What many of us do for those risk free first bets is to place a corresponding wager on the other side of the game at a different book that locks in a profit no matter what happens. Since free bets can usually be converted for about 70% of their value, a $1500 risk free first bet offer can usually be converted to a guaranteed $750 or so. If you want to do a lot of this stuff, paying for a subscription to a site like darkhorseodds or oddsjam will pay for itself pretty quickly. It will find the best way to convert free bets, risk free bets, and odds boost to guaranteed profits.
Sorry I should have clarified. This is a “pointsbet” which I have never heard of before. The results of the bet depend of the deviance from the spread. So if the o/u is 200 and I take take the over for $150, if the final score is 210 I would win $1500, if it was 205 I would lose $750, etc. You can set a stop loss, but it has to be at least 10x the bet. This is what I have gleaned at least (its a little confusing).
I imagine there is some weird way to hedge this, but meh. I think I want to just maximize my chance of winning or loosing the entire $1500.
I think your approach seems logical. Pointsbet is a pretty awful sportsbook compared to the others. I would try to get the following clarified in the unfortunate circumstance where you end up with a free $1,500 bet:
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Can you split the free bet into smaller amounts, such as 5 $300 free bets, or 3 $500 free bets?
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Of the legal IL sites, PointsBet is the only one that will place a bet for an amount smaller than you want without asking. For example, say you want to place a $500 bet. You place the bet, you seen the spinning circle for ~60 seconds, and then PB only places the bet for $100. Definitely find out what happens if that occurs with a $500 free bet. I would hope you would still have a $400 free bet remaining, but PB is such trash that I’m not entirely sure.
A Bulls loss would be nice today. They’ve somehow stayed strong despite Caruso+Ball injuries. I was a Dosunmu hater in college, but he’s been amazing thus far.
That Houston Conference Champions bets is looking amazing at the moment. -715 on Kambi with SMU getting smoked yesterday. 6-point faves @Cincy today. Hopefully get a W.
I spent 20 minutes trying to line shop this today, got even more confused and just took the over on the Pacer-Cavs game. They have the straight line set at 215.5, but apparently the pointsbet is a push at 217. I’m too dumb/lazy to figure the vig on this, but my gut is telling me it is terrible. Does anybody actually bet on this stuff? They also have the option of pointsbetting on the square of the deviation, which sounded good at first. But incredibly you cannot place a stop loss on that - so you better be ready to lose infinity dollars I guess. Sounds fun.
And yeah, the book seems sketchy. My very first bet was just a straight bet for 500 (for the other risk free promotion), and they spent a minute reviewing that! Just gonna clear the bonus and check out I think.
well assuming this is pointsbet, think there is a stop loss in the terms at some point so if it went 100-0 or w/e you don’t get super rekt but yeah it’s not for awhile. I’ve never put a bet on it tho.
bulls lose but it doesn’t matter cause the non garland cavs are as bad as the preseason odds said they’d be
sigh, looked at cash out odds earlier but they were all lol bad vs current odds, might have to start seriously thinking about taking a few tho
Lol, 83 points in the first half. My strategy worked I guess 
Nice comeback. I believe you mentioned Love for 6th man award when I made a long post a month or so ago. Think he’s a solid bet in a narrative-driven league if you can get him around 40/1
I remember I mentioned cavs for basically everything, don’t remember posting about love tho. Bickerstaff isn’t leading Coach of the year odds wise yet and I really don’t get why tho.
As long as the cavs keep up this pace I only have to hit one of the entire batch for the individual props.
Foxbet has been down for 5 days now with no notice besides “we’ll be right back” when you log in. Easily the worst legal book
Foxbet sucks. I’ve been having to play poker on BetMGM this weekend which also sucks. They hinted at it being up this morning and that it’s not a data breach.
https://twitter.com/PokerStarsUSA/status/1489724536685744138?t=Rsn8Lz1_MJwsPAW2L6t2Ew&s=19
“not a data breach” makes me think its a data breach
A data breach would be bad
But if it’s five days and not extortion. That’s actually worse.
I have about $5100 on Foxbet/Stars. Would it be prudent to remove a large chunk of it today? I’d like to think it is safe being a legal, regulated, and large company, but this is getting a bit ridiculous.
This seems like an overreaction at this point. Most likely they found a massive software loophole and just shut everything down as a huge precaution and have to develop & rollout the fixes.
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