Edging up towards where I want the ■■■■■
Wait til his rallies and fanfares start up again before writing him off.
Don’t overthink this. The Economist model has him at 16%. Even if it’s really wrong, buying Trump NO is still a bargain.
PI has R’s only at 70% to win Texas. Dropped $50 on that, easy bit for life-hedging purposes.
UPDATE: only 57% to win GA? Good Lord.
That race is going to have ALL the shenanigans. There are two senate races there.
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It comes down to how long black folks will be willing to stand in ridiculous lines to vote after the racist white guy messes with the electric or ballots or whatever
In have a feeling they will be pretty motivated this year. Do we have anyone in the ATL area? If so, we should throw in for some pizzas on election night and have a local Unstucker drop them off at the longest line with our regards.
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@Nicholasp27 for sure. I think there are one or two others, but can’t remember off the top of my head.
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GA legitimately full on rigged the gubernatorial election in 2018. Might put some money on the GOP.
Did the dirty and took Trump @2.48.
It seems many people think this is going to be a straight and fair election.
No more indictments markets? That sucks.
PI got hit hard when all the tweet markets got nuked. (well deserved though) Still a few bucks on ghouliani/hunter biden/barr/obama (LOL) indictments and even betting against hillary running is only 1% for an entire month now, it’s sad.
The state markets are bizarre to me–I have team blue overrated in some places but also team red is overrated in some places.
GA probably a point or two blue except for expected riggage.
Some guy on PI said that they’re going to discontinue indictments markets because of some legal issue that I don’t understand. Damn that sucks, I loved taking free money from Qanon guys.
Looks like someone kept bugging the CFTC about something because that person is a total moron and so they cracked down a bit.
anyway, kudos to whoever had kanye at 2c, even though the tweet most likely a publicity stunt since he can’t be on all 50 state ballots at this point, hit 60 at one point. It’ll probably fall a bit when people realize how dumb this is (though surprisingly he still can make most of them, I just looked it up)
This is why we can’t have nice things. Dammit, a guaranteed bi-annual return of 15% on multiple markets, plus a constant stream of hilarious Qanon posts in the chat to entertain us. All that gone because someone snitched.
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Woohoo I’m glad I found this thread. My primary gambling went well, got me back above water after the disaster that was 2016.
I usually just snipe off the $0.92s that are getting converted into $1.00 with basically certainty. But I did get a big win on Biden trading ludicrously at $0.19 the night before MN when he’s crushed in SC and had all the momentum and all the endorsements.
But yeah, I’ve got like $3k uninvested on predictit, can’t quite settle on contracts I really like.
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Debating if I need to just jump into the Biden for Pres contract at 61c. I think it’s pretty clearly underpriced, so maybe it’s just that simple. And I think people are still litigating 2016 and going to be overly cautious about estimating Biden’s chances, so it could just stay undervalued for a long time and tie up $850 that could be used elsewhere.
well it’s four or five points off the rest of the site same market (3 more times actually) because it’s at the top of the page. PI is always like this, plenty of donks never scroll down before blowing all their money. The other part that could lower it soon (at least initially perceived anyway) is kanye.
Hillary 95 not nominee in a month. 99 not running (god that’s running out of steam already, sigh) are the easiest ones for the stashing plan.
Big market now is whether kanye files a god damn form or not
Trump drop out before nov jumps by 10+ points tomorrow if mazers goes through I’d guess but wouldn’t go long.
Biden drop out before nov seems overpriced at 11 i.e. he drops dead in less than 4 months. Same with Kim being NKorea leader at 12.
Trump to win any state he lost in 2016 being at 26 seems way way too high.
Dem clean sweep/win senate seems underpriced at an effective push but not sure I’d go long there.
And always, lol at trump to win pop vote being higher than 5 at the very best.
I think the 93-95 biden getting the nomination are better markets than 89 all the way through right now.
Everyone isn’t getting charged either, but those markets play best when that hornets nest gets kicked on right wing media or in q-moron land.
It was pretty unreal to see it at 45c. I’m more pessimistic than most on dems winning the presidency and I maxed 3 accounts on that one.
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not gonna report you of course but careful with things like this and I’m jealous, I would’ve had a ****ton on impeachment. You could still get a ridic # at sportsbooks on that prop too. Think even bovada’s fixed it now though. (yeah -800 on bov)
Senate/House combined somehow all far better than just the senate prop despite senate without house being seriously, all but literally fucking impossible. You have to try hard, bend a few lines of logic, etc.