This is effectively just the same market as GOP.NH which is trading at 24c. The chance Trump picks up any other state while not also picking up NH is very low. I definitely take Dems there given the option but there are better markets I think, straightforward stuff like DEM.PRES.
Yeah I’m already maxed on Biden Yes nom 92c and Hillary No nom at 95c, I agree those are very low risk.
I think the gap between Biden-Pres and the other markets (Dem pres?) lie in people thinking Biden might not be the nominee
Do they offer bets about the number of delegates a candidate will win?
Balance of power in Congress is my favorite safe bet. Seems pretty clear Dems are keeping the House at a minimum.
they have electoral college margin, it’s right at the top of the prez election tab. It’s a range (say dems +1-9, etc), I know bovada has this.
for the extremists here, (err, normal people here)
GOP 280+ at 98… they have to win like Illinois or something.
Dems have a path to 280+ with everything lean R or better.
Yeah that market is a little wacky, here are the prices atm:
Dems 280+ is the shortest-priced of any category, which is like… OK, it’s an open ended thing so you get a greater range of values, but here’s a Dems by 280+ map:
It doesn’t matter which way Iowa or NE-2 go. That’s gotta be about as good as it gets and you can’t realistically lose any other blue states and stay above 280. I’m not sure what state is possibly going Dem next. Indiana was Trump +13 in 2016. So basically if you’re betting Dems 280+, you’re betting that map with or without IA/NE-2. I feel like I want more than +500 to parlay together Dems winning TX, GA, AZ, OH and so on.
Edit: The Economist’s election forecast, which has Biden at 89% to win the election, has the average result as Dems by 148 electoral votes.
406-132 is 274 so Iowa does matter. (though NE02 would all but certainly also go blue in this example)
as for next state which isn’t gonna happen–like Kansas or Alaska or Utah. Those places aren’t as trumpy as rural indiana or missouri would be. (south carolina has a higher floor but that state is also deeply evangelical so…) Some of these polls like Alaska 3 points, or Missouri 2 points I’m just not buying it.
Iowa flips Blue before they’re ever flipping states like Georgia and Texas. Probably more likely flip than Ohio at this point. 359-179 feels like the biggest possible landslide.
Even in a landslide the overall map is almost half red (if you include Alaska which is a lot bigger in size than Texas).
More reminders how worthless this system is. Got about 6 crap states that combined deserve 2 senators.
I’m thinking that you’ll have more free money to get if you wait a little.
I think GA is bluer than IA. (*until factoring in unknown level of riggage) (I’m actually not the only one, PI’s market agrees)
We’re in a weird shift, rural south is tapped so they can only go bluer but the north should be going the other way like WI should be clear red but instead trump fucked that up. Iowa shouldn’t even be close really.
Four years from now R’s should actually be favored thanks to the EC if they hang on to TX. They’ll probably still fuck this up.
it did go down till mid 80s but just shot back up. Looks like a train of sharps are maxed on YES. (I followed someone so I’m on it too, one could’ve gotten an arb freerolling with domer I think too)
You’re also risking them closing and paying out by waiting.
If anyone wants a 17% return on $300 max, bovada has Democrat to win popular vote -600.
3 Likes
oh ****
edit–also it’s -500 somewhere on the net probably mybookie
also some of those bovada state prices are way worse than even PI after fees.
btw a lot of places just copied predictit, so there’s some value at the ends on some books like California -2000. Yeah I know only 5%, but you know how much andrew yang money I actually wasted time and money just to take it? I’m weird like this.
If you just need to clear bonus I bet on some of them you can clear a decent amount on dem or republican win at like -a bazillion.
Dammit, I miss the indictments markets so much.
Joe Biden now 19% to drop out after one of the R toads tweeted out he has inside sources that tell him Biden’s cognitive decline is at the point they gotta make a decision.
Bit high I’d say but I don’t have inside sources, but I do believe the only inside sources that donk has are between his own ears.
I’m a total noob to betting on elections. Put $100 on Predictit for funzies, and put it all on Trump to win MI at $0.27.
They stopped buying ads in Michigan.