Betting on Politics: Predictit is NOT Dead

PI at biden 52 trump 47 :eyes: itshappening.gif? Finally?

Happy with my penny buys of Bottoms for VP a week or so ago. Looks like she’s up to 4th at 8 cents.

I bet NO too early, still don’t see how a mayor gets it though but that doesn’t matter for PIs since you can re evaluate later.

You going to sell at these levels or hold? I got a few K at 1c myself but not sure if we get much higher

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Trump from 2.1 to 2.22. Biden now favourite.

More fascistic outpourings from you Donny Boy to 2.5 and you’re mine, though you could even be value now.

Update

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Probably dumping it soon. I don’t think she’s getting it, but the odds seem a lot higher than 1%. 10% seems a little high.

This presidential election seems like the perfect emotional hedging opportunity.

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god damn it, I was about to encourage you to bet bigly on Trump but I’m not sure if the Riverman curse extends to emotional hedge bets. Probably not.

I’m sitting this one out. I’ve learned my lesson.

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Trump still drifting in the markets, who have Biden as odds on.

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if you had told me a month ago donald trump would be lower odds for his nomination than joe biden…

Wat

oh sorry biden is only 90 on the main one, the other ones he’s already 95. Trump is at 92 and falling.

Donny baby still drifting…

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I figure Biden is 5/8 at this point. Polling is good atm but there’s too much uncertainty to push it much higher I think. Also the main narrative heading into the election is TBD.

If there is even a slight surge in Trump’s pop vote, I’d recommend adding/buying. I have $2550 worth but will add if some miracle short-term bullshit comes in that favors Trump. The worst case against the bet is essentially gone, imo.

Still waiting to hit 2.5 (6/4).

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ETA: election rallies slated to start on the 19th, so I might back the turd this week.

Seriously considering getting all in on trump winning pres. 43 cents, holy shit. There has to be a ton of money there just riding the inevitable swongs for the next few months

What other markets are strongly correlated with this one?

Dangerous game imo. There might not be an uptick and things could easily look extremely grim for Trump circa November. His approval rating has been heading steadily down over the last month or two. He doesn’t seem to get the new public mood on the protests and his response just looks out of touch. STONKS are likely to head lower. COVID is liable to start causing some bad headlines as well. Biden has looked like his brain is holding together so far. I don’t like either bet but gun to head I think I take Biden.