Betting on Politics: Predictit is NOT Dead

On the one hand, they never impeached Obama. On the other hand, the R house of 2015 was a lot less crazy then the R house of 2023 will be.

This, plus things in general seem like they are about to go much more poorly.

Stock market correction, Russia/China stuff, never ending COVID. Just a few of the many things that could very easily go sideways and have a large portion of the country calling for Biden’s head.

It didn’t seem quite this dire with Obama.

by June is the key of that or it’d be quite a bit higher

You are forgetting the main thing, besides R being rabid, that make Biden impeachment a lock. Revenge for Trump’s impeachments for his “perfect phone call” and just giving a little speech where he told his followers to be peaceful.

Rs are 100% to make a bad faith analogy to the above for something Biden does and say they are merely doing tit for tat, not their fault that this is the precedent Ds set! June 2023 is moving pretty fast even for them though and assume they would want to do it closer to the 2024 election anyway.

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Lol they’re going to impeach him in the first week

Right, they have to vote by then, not just start the hearings. Part of this is a question of how much the true believers drive the show versus the people who understand that they’re full of shit and this is all a show. The people who get it will want long prime time hearings and they’ll want to turn it into a show trial. Biden won’t refuse a subpoena, so they can make him testify on live TV in prime time, along with many others.

They may also want to wait and time it closer to November 2024 if they know it’s just a show. The true believers will want to get to it within the first month or 100 days for sure, which makes June 30 a pretty good line.

The first impeachment of Trump started with an inquiry on 9/24 and the House impeached on 12/18, as a frame of reference. So if they do it the first week, it could be over way before 6/30.

can you imagine if they don’t impeach that first week? there are going to be billions of maga trolls calling these dumb GOP backbenchers nonstop WHY AINT YALL INPEACHED YET?? YOU SOME KINDA RINO??? so of course they;re going to do it immediately and it will be something completely dumb like “being mean to steve doocy”

oh also charge 2 will be “having a son who owned a laptop”

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Isn’t the more likely* scenario that Trump becomes Speaker of the House and Biden/Harris get impeached?

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But don’t they still need 67 Senators in that scenario as well?

Hillary ain’t running imo. She’s getting old, the DNC doesn’t want to gamble on someone who completely fucked up and underperformed last time around. Kamala ticks all the same eDem boxes without all the Clinton baggage.

It’s a great scam the eDems have going. Use their control of the media to shit on actual good candidates then cite public opinion for why they should be in charge forever.

“Violating Steve Doocy’s First Amendment rights” followed by months of intense navel gazing from the NYT and WP about whether or not hey maybe Biden did violate the First Amendment, combined with a bunch of pompous bloviating about The Sanctity Of The Press and their Crucial Role In Society.

actual good candidates are never actually stopped by the media

Lol did you sleep through 2020?

There were no good candidates in 2020 man

so for some results, for PI, politics 2021 betting results, let’s just call it a little over 5k in the green, (before tax man)

90% of this was the cabinet markets beginning of the year realizing that they couldn’t get many of them done by the deadline time. Then I stopped paying attention to PI cause there wasn’t much and moved on to other stuff. (also rip polymarket for americans).

Here’s to hoping 2022 brings some very profitable opportunities in the election year for us all.

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I made about 3.5k on PI in 2021 - not nearly as free as 2020 but still pretty free. most of it was from just following wassermans tweets closely during the ga elections. I hate paying withdrawal fees so I still got about 10k on there sitting in safe bonds until the midterms

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I made just over 6k in 2021, which I would have thought was impossible at the start of the year. I withdrew most of my 2020 election winnings leaving myself about $600 to play around with, and I was able to more than 10x my money. Mostly in the weekly Biden approval rating markets.

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She’s at 85 cents still.

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Biden SOTU address on Tuesday. Surely he says “Russia” or “Putin” 11+ times, right?

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7742/How-many-times-will-Biden-say-Russia-or-Putin-in-the-State-of-the-Union