I think I’d take the no side of that. Why would Biden want to spend heavy time on an issue he has no solution for beyond “we’re gonna do some sanctions”. A speech heavy on foreign policy just invites a response painting him as a loser in both Ukraine and Afghanistan. What he needs is to somehow create the impression he has actually done something domestically, so I’d expect a lot of touting of specific domestic projects.
Like even if he talks about it a bunch he’s going to want to focus on the positives so a lot of “our NATO allies” and “international cooperation” and so forth. He can’t credibly call out Putin, Putin just successfully invaded a country and demonstrated that the US won’t do anything about it.
Looking at the markets for the SOTU, I think it’s a pure gamble. Anyone disagree? I mean he can refer to Putin as “he” or “this dictator” or “that madman” and it won’t count. Same for Russia and “they.”
You’re guaranteed a first mention of Russia, Putin and likely the Russian people. But after that, adjectives can get in there. “Their oil” or “their economy.” He can also stumble over his words and adjust.
And on the price/prices/etc market, it appears “cost” doesn’t count, which is a huge wild card.
Wow that’s surprisingly low. I think it should be around 70%. I mean, the likelihood he’s beaten in a primary have to be extremely low. So really you’re betting on him dying or choosing not to run again, I think.
Like I think there’s around a 0% chance that Harris, Buttigieg, Clinton, etc primary him. It would have to be a non politician or someone with no future ambitions within the Democratic party as it’s currently constituted.
I would most definitely be taking the under on Putin/Russia mentions:
I mean, obviously, but digging into the article:
“Putin’s war was premeditated and unprovoked. He rejected efforts at diplomacy. He thought the West and NATO wouldn’t respond. And, he thought he could divide us here at home,” Biden will say, according to the excerpts. “Putin was wrong. We were ready.”
…
The initial excerpts provided by the White House showed how the speech has evolved in recent days as a result of invasion of Ukraine.
In other words, the speech was basically ready to go and they’ve tacked a bit onto it about Putin. So what else is in it?
The annual speech also marks an opportunity for him to speak directly to the American people about his vision to build a better country, demonstrating how he’ll lead America out of the Covid-19 pandemic, into an economic recovery and through the ramifications of a war between Ukraine and Russia.
Biden will recognize his administration’s major accomplishments, including the nomination of the first Black woman to the Supreme Court and the passage of his first two major legislative priorities in his first year in office. He’ll discuss the prospect of a return to normalcy as Covid cases wane inside a full room where masks are optional – a marked departure from his joint address to Congress last year, when masks were required and seating was limited. And he will seek to recalibrate an economic message that acknowledges the hardships many Americans are facing amid higher prices, launching a new plan to lower costs for American families.
During the speech, Biden is expected to lay out a plan to fight inflation, saying the nation has “a choice. One way to fight inflation is to drive down wages and make Americans poorer. I have a better plan to fight inflation.”
So we got:
Supreme Court nomination
Legislative “achievements”
COVID stuff
Some kind of detailed inflation plan
It’s a fair bit of stuff to pack in and, as I expected, the focus here is domestic policy. Ukraine has to be mentioned, but he’s not going to allow it to derail the focus of this already-crafted speech.
I don’t disagree with you it’s just a) two god damn years and b) all that needs to go down a lot more is if approval dips into the 30’s, carter was mid 30’s I think. yes he “won”, but got a challenger
I’ve now got Russia/Putin mentions NO to 3 or fewer. We know of two Putin’s from an excerpt and he’s got to mention Russia at least once. So I just need an additional Russia or a Russian oil or Russian people or Russian soldiers reference.
Since it’s a gamble, my plan is to just buy the no’s as he repeats the phrases and take the free money from people who don’t want to wait a day or two to cash their 99c into $1.00.
4+ is a lock, he is apparently going to announce that US is closing airspace to Russian planes. I stopped betting no on 12+ when I heard that, although I still think its a decent bet, just not so bullish as before.
