Lol did you sleep through 2020?
There were no good candidates in 2020 man
so for some results, for PI, politics 2021 betting results, let’s just call it a little over 5k in the green, (before tax man)
90% of this was the cabinet markets beginning of the year realizing that they couldn’t get many of them done by the deadline time. Then I stopped paying attention to PI cause there wasn’t much and moved on to other stuff. (also rip polymarket for americans).
Here’s to hoping 2022 brings some very profitable opportunities in the election year for us all.
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I made about 3.5k on PI in 2021 - not nearly as free as 2020 but still pretty free. most of it was from just following wassermans tweets closely during the ga elections. I hate paying withdrawal fees so I still got about 10k on there sitting in safe bonds until the midterms
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I made just over 6k in 2021, which I would have thought was impossible at the start of the year. I withdrew most of my 2020 election winnings leaving myself about $600 to play around with, and I was able to more than 10x my money. Mostly in the weekly Biden approval rating markets.
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She’s at 85 cents still.
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Biden SOTU address on Tuesday. Surely he says “Russia” or “Putin” 11+ times, right?
I think I’d take the no side of that. Why would Biden want to spend heavy time on an issue he has no solution for beyond “we’re gonna do some sanctions”. A speech heavy on foreign policy just invites a response painting him as a loser in both Ukraine and Afghanistan. What he needs is to somehow create the impression he has actually done something domestically, so I’d expect a lot of touting of specific domestic projects.
Like even if he talks about it a bunch he’s going to want to focus on the positives so a lot of “our NATO allies” and “international cooperation” and so forth. He can’t credibly call out Putin, Putin just successfully invaded a country and demonstrated that the US won’t do anything about it.
He should start a war with Mexico and/or nuke a hurricane.
True, but it’s still going to be a speech that runs an hour plus. It’s not unlikely that there’s an 6-8 minute section about it.
Looking at the markets for the SOTU, I think it’s a pure gamble. Anyone disagree? I mean he can refer to Putin as “he” or “this dictator” or “that madman” and it won’t count. Same for Russia and “they.”
You’re guaranteed a first mention of Russia, Putin and likely the Russian people. But after that, adjectives can get in there. “Their oil” or “their economy.” He can also stumble over his words and adjust.
And on the price/prices/etc market, it appears “cost” doesn’t count, which is a huge wild card.
and that’s just to be the Dem nominee? Wow!
Where do I go to bet that?
Bovada
biden’s only 39c on PI, it’s not as ridic as you think even though degenerate gamblers are right wing morons (who think it’ll be hillary, not joking)
basically that approval doesn’t have to go much lower and that noise is going to start stirring
Wow that’s surprisingly low. I think it should be around 70%. I mean, the likelihood he’s beaten in a primary have to be extremely low. So really you’re betting on him dying or choosing not to run again, I think.
Like I think there’s around a 0% chance that Harris, Buttigieg, Clinton, etc primary him. It would have to be a non politician or someone with no future ambitions within the Democratic party as it’s currently constituted.
I would most definitely be taking the under on Putin/Russia mentions:
I mean, obviously, but digging into the article:
“Putin’s war was premeditated and unprovoked. He rejected efforts at diplomacy. He thought the West and NATO wouldn’t respond. And, he thought he could divide us here at home,” Biden will say, according to the excerpts. “Putin was wrong. We were ready.”
…
The initial excerpts provided by the White House showed how the speech has evolved in recent days as a result of invasion of Ukraine.
In other words, the speech was basically ready to go and they’ve tacked a bit onto it about Putin. So what else is in it?
The annual speech also marks an opportunity for him to speak directly to the American people about his vision to build a better country, demonstrating how he’ll lead America out of the Covid-19 pandemic, into an economic recovery and through the ramifications of a war between Ukraine and Russia.
Biden will recognize his administration’s major accomplishments, including the nomination of the first Black woman to the Supreme Court and the passage of his first two major legislative priorities in his first year in office. He’ll discuss the prospect of a return to normalcy as Covid cases wane inside a full room where masks are optional – a marked departure from his joint address to Congress last year, when masks were required and seating was limited. And he will seek to recalibrate an economic message that acknowledges the hardships many Americans are facing amid higher prices, launching a new plan to lower costs for American families.
During the speech, Biden is expected to lay out a plan to fight inflation, saying the nation has “a choice. One way to fight inflation is to drive down wages and make Americans poorer. I have a better plan to fight inflation.”
So we got:
- Supreme Court nomination
- Legislative “achievements”
- COVID stuff
- Some kind of detailed inflation plan
It’s a fair bit of stuff to pack in and, as I expected, the focus here is domestic policy. Ukraine has to be mentioned, but he’s not going to allow it to derail the focus of this already-crafted speech.
I am buying no to 12+ on PolyMarket at the moment, liquidity is low though.
I’m also buying no to him mentioning crypto/Bitcoin @ 0.75 ish. I just don’t see why he would, like who cares.
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