I figure Biden is 5/8 at this point. Polling is good atm but there’s too much uncertainty to push it much higher I think. Also the main narrative heading into the election is TBD.
If there is even a slight surge in Trump’s pop vote, I’d recommend adding/buying. I have $2550 worth but will add if some miracle short-term bullshit comes in that favors Trump. The worst case against the bet is essentially gone, imo.
Still waiting to hit 2.5 (6/4).
ETA: election rallies slated to start on the 19th, so I might back the turd this week.
Seriously considering getting all in on trump winning pres. 43 cents, holy shit. There has to be a ton of money there just riding the inevitable swongs for the next few months
What other markets are strongly correlated with this one?
Dangerous game imo. There might not be an uptick and things could easily look extremely grim for Trump circa November. His approval rating has been heading steadily down over the last month or two. He doesn’t seem to get the new public mood on the protests and his response just looks out of touch. STONKS are likely to head lower. COVID is liable to start causing some bad headlines as well. Biden has looked like his brain is holding together so far. I don’t like either bet but gun to head I think I take Biden.
Edging up towards where I want the ■■■■■
Wait til his rallies and fanfares start up again before writing him off.
Don’t overthink this. The Economist model has him at 16%. Even if it’s really wrong, buying Trump NO is still a bargain.
PI has R’s only at 70% to win Texas. Dropped $50 on that, easy bit for life-hedging purposes.
UPDATE: only 57% to win GA? Good Lord.
That race is going to have ALL the shenanigans. There are two senate races there.
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It comes down to how long black folks will be willing to stand in ridiculous lines to vote after the racist white guy messes with the electric or ballots or whatever
In have a feeling they will be pretty motivated this year. Do we have anyone in the ATL area? If so, we should throw in for some pizzas on election night and have a local Unstucker drop them off at the longest line with our regards.
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@Nicholasp27 for sure. I think there are one or two others, but can’t remember off the top of my head.
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GA legitimately full on rigged the gubernatorial election in 2018. Might put some money on the GOP.
Did the dirty and took Trump @2.48.
It seems many people think this is going to be a straight and fair election.
No more indictments markets? That sucks.
PI got hit hard when all the tweet markets got nuked. (well deserved though) Still a few bucks on ghouliani/hunter biden/barr/obama (LOL) indictments and even betting against hillary running is only 1% for an entire month now, it’s sad.
The state markets are bizarre to me–I have team blue overrated in some places but also team red is overrated in some places.
GA probably a point or two blue except for expected riggage.
Some guy on PI said that they’re going to discontinue indictments markets because of some legal issue that I don’t understand. Damn that sucks, I loved taking free money from Qanon guys.
Looks like someone kept bugging the CFTC about something because that person is a total moron and so they cracked down a bit.
anyway, kudos to whoever had kanye at 2c, even though the tweet most likely a publicity stunt since he can’t be on all 50 state ballots at this point, hit 60 at one point. It’ll probably fall a bit when people realize how dumb this is (though surprisingly he still can make most of them, I just looked it up)
This is why we can’t have nice things. Dammit, a guaranteed bi-annual return of 15% on multiple markets, plus a constant stream of hilarious Qanon posts in the chat to entertain us. All that gone because someone snitched.
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Woohoo I’m glad I found this thread. My primary gambling went well, got me back above water after the disaster that was 2016.
I usually just snipe off the $0.92s that are getting converted into $1.00 with basically certainty. But I did get a big win on Biden trading ludicrously at $0.19 the night before MN when he’s crushed in SC and had all the momentum and all the endorsements.
But yeah, I’ve got like $3k uninvested on predictit, can’t quite settle on contracts I really like.
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Debating if I need to just jump into the Biden for Pres contract at 61c. I think it’s pretty clearly underpriced, so maybe it’s just that simple. And I think people are still litigating 2016 and going to be overly cautious about estimating Biden’s chances, so it could just stay undervalued for a long time and tie up $850 that could be used elsewhere.