2024 US Presidential Election (Taylor's Version)

Overt white supremacy in his advertising, plus the Hillbilly Elegy shtick made him presentable to mainstream center-right voters.

The miserable childless cat ladies thing isn’t coming out of nowhere, it’s a Great Replacement dogwhistle that white supremacists are absolutely clued into.

Strategically, I guess you could make the argument that a Rubio or a Tim Scott would have made for a broader appeal nationally and in certain demographics, but (1) the polling might still say to go with JD b/c white dudes in the Midwest are actually going to be more important to the outcome than Black voters in the South or Hispanic voters in AZ/Nevada and (2) the Silicon Valley money folks might have wanted Vance.

Also, I think Trump might be the type to disregard strategic considerations and just YOLO the pick no matter what because he truly does believe that only the name at the top of the ticket matters.

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Yeah but isn’t the GOP awash in Midwestern white guys who aren’t alleged couch fuckers. They could have just picked someone like Burgum or Cotton. It didn’t have to be Vance.

Cerified hillbilly? Certified couchophile!

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It’s not clear whether he or the #2 Republican was more Trump-y.

they were basically equally trumpy, but the other guy was way more genuine

Suburban Ohio Republicans are themselves all cosplaying as hillbillies with camo Carhart hoodies and Superduty Ford 350s, they don’t care that JD is a fraud just like them.

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100% this

They don’t realize they are frauds.

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Trump was still picking hi VP with regard to who is willing to support the next coup. That’s my theory until I have different information.

I think if he knew the ticket would be Harris Walz, he would have bought into his own messaging that Kamala is an incompetent loser who the country would never pick over him, the greatest president USA ever had, and would not have cared or changed a thing except workshopping attacks on her earlier in the process.

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But do polls three months before the election mean anything?

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It is not and the quality of this form improves dramatically for everyone when people ignore the abusive shitheads

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https://x.com/Politics_Polls/status/1821570050282950848

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Trump: You n word w word!

The below oversampled women (54/46) but:

https://x.com/Politics_Polls/status/1821565932147274110

Men: 46/46, Women: 50/44

In 2022, women in Wisconsin represented 53% of the vote.

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It’s time we had a conversation about men’s suffrage.

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I’m surprised he takes this much away from it since the responses to the poll in question ended a week ago, but Nate Cohn does tend to know his stuff.

https://x.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1821579829722091864

There’s bound to be a few more plot twists, but right now it seems like Trump is pretty cooked.

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It is so unbelievably odd to see Mr. Double Down ever not double down. I’ve been wrong every single time I’ve said this, but at least some of his supporters will be confused by him backing down on “I’ll see you on Fox or not at all”.