I am less certain of the outcome of the election only because the world and all it’s systems are so volatile right now. It’s been less than a week since Trump came within an inch of being assassinated. It’s been less than a month since the debate that sent Joe’s campaign into a death spiral. There are months to go until the election. Every week between now and then might include a seismic event that roils the election yet again.
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I think if we run a non-corpse it’s much less likely to be a landslide. He’ll still be a big favorite but I don’t think he’d be a lock like he is against lol Biden.
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Sure maybe but the place I am at is the bedrock problem is the majority of American people. They want a right wing hellscape led by an untouchable dictator or they are too stupid the understand the difference. Nothing in the next few months is changing that.
Whitmer would be favored against Trump, and it’s silly to think otherwise. Biden will lose because he’s a terrible candidate, and Harris would be an underdog because she’s a very weak candidate, but Whitmer or any decent-to-strong candidate would be a favorite. Trump’s broadly unpopular, he’s too old to be president, and when people tune in to the campaign, they’ll remember how crazy he is and how much they hated it when he was president.
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I think these people are a slight minority vs. the combined groups of “people that actively do not want that” and “people that vote in Presidential elections but aren’t online constantly consuming politics media”. The latter of these two groups is bigger than we tend to assume, and they are susceptible to both fascism and messaging from Dems that the government will give them stuff to help them with their problems. I think that part of the reason that the position of AOC and Bernie is catching UPers off guard is that they are politicians that actually try to help people in the real world, so they are more engaged with that third group than the rest of us are. They can see more clearly that there are people that want help (often DESPERATELY need help) from the government and those people are candidate Dem voters if the party can get over the side show stuff and consolidate around a message of helping people. They are right that excessive kowtowing to the billionaire donor class is missing their opportunity, but they are probably wrong that the way to get past that is to throw all the party’s weight behind Joe and get on with things. They need to get past Joe and then get on with things.
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Plus, AIUI, she’s on the rules committee! If there wasn’t adequate planning for how the convention would work if the octogenarian candidate had to drop out, whose fault is that? Maybe pull a couple all-nighters getting your ducks in a row for when Biden drops out rather than scheming to cram down the nomination over the objections of a big majority of the party and the voters.
The prediction markets are saying there’s a 25% chance that the nominee won’t be Harris or Biden, and if the DNC isn’t planning for that, it’s willful dereliction of duty.
“Trump is broadly unpopular” is pure wishcasting given all the available evidence points in the opposite direction.
Skydiver posted a video of lots of black people waiting to see Biden at ncaap, case closed
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What evidence are you talking about, and why isn’t it the regularly conducted polls about whether people have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Trump?
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To be fair, the DNC only had four years to plan out extremely unlikely scenarios in which the 80-year-old has to drop out due to health issues. You can’t expect them to have an off-the-shelf solution.
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I still think a huge underrated part of this election is that we have seen zero evidence over the last 8 years that Trump has been in politics that he can crack the ceiling of around 47% approval or support.
Even the Republican excitement at this point is more about Democrats seeming weak than it is about Trump gaining new constituencies of support.
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You mean elections?
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Hookers and blow?
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The People: We want Biden!
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So in the election between one dude who is clearly Christian and one dude who is clearly faking it, you’re going with the latter?
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Exit plan: 1. Say you’re exiting. 2. Other people do hard stuff. 3. Plan over.
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this is a few days old and nothing earthshattering but for me it at least gathered like half of the frustrations
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PMed you. We’ve gotta settle up on these convention bets: