You forgot “the polls are a monkey slinging shit covered darts at the wall.”
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Matty basically copied my map except flipped AZ and NV
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That makes me feel a lot better about @ChrisV’s doom and gloom. Hopefully Nevada is an outlier and not a harbinger.
Cool how Yggy not only magically knows what the real numbers are, but also knows why pollsters are deliberately fudging their numbers, kinda wish he would share his sources on this.
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“Error favors Harris” = poll gives more % to Harris than her actual %, so she’ll do worse than predicted, or
= Harris will do better than the poll predicted?
I think you mean the former but just checking. Harris (and this forum) would find the latter to be favorable
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This is my map. NE then changes the rules so the whole state goes red and SC says that’s cool and then House gives it to Trump.
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I’m still firmly in the camp of “The polls underestimated Trump twice camp, so fool me once shame on we can’t get fooled again.”
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I didn’t forget. I didn’t know how to word it and figured people could write it in. Also debated anonymous or not. People can say what they think and why.
For myself, I think the polls are wrong and favor Trump due to a combination of outright shenanigans, questionable methods, and feels. Feels are not rational but some of what the polling is saying is very hard to accept. If I’m wrong so be it.
That’s where I’m at. People have said the pollsters probably corrected their error, or even over corrected it. But I have no way of knowing that. All I have to go on is the last two elections
Yes, I meant this. Editing post to clarify.
He actually does say why they are doing this - because if they are caught “getting it wrong again”, its best not to be in favor of the same guy they underestimated in the past two elections. And they would likely be right to do so (if they want to minimize the damage to their credibility and keep their jobs).
That’s a plausible theory, but as I said, there’s no evidence for it. Also it’s equally plausible that:
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The polls actually are correct.
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The polls are systematically off for unknown reasons and not because the pollsters are deliberately fudging the numbers.
Well I made an almost identical post here a few days ago IIRC but I didn’t provide any evidence because I don’t have any. I just like bullshitting on the internet and didn’t think anyone would take me seriously. Plus if you end up being right you can repost your prediction and pretend you are a genius. I wouldn’t make any wagers based of of this guy’s tweets but YMMV
Sure, I just hold Yggy to a higher standard because he pretends to be a serious, professional opinion-haver and people inexplicably take his hot takes seriously as though he’s not just spitballing/trolling most of the time.
There are so many variables in the air on this one that you can create your own adventure easily. And this forum is easily to most Doomer pilled place I have ever witnessed. I get it, it seems psychologically easier to assume to worst and be wrong than the other way. And the rich ass holes have infiltrated every thing and the propaganda is flowing. Hopefully it’s not as powerful as they think.
A sample size of 2 elections with trump polling being off when they are def trying to do better isn’t much. And post roe had the opposite effect. 2022 was literally spamming polls creating a narrative that was off. We can’t know which is more powerful.
Small sample (intentional or not) of polling error. The last NYT sienna poll had Harris +12 with women 18-29.
NYT assumed electorate 52% women, 13% 18-29
2008/2012/2016/2020 actual electorate
54-55% women, 15-16% age 18-29.
I have no fucking clue but I refuse to just keep saying yup he is def winning as some doom pilled self fulfilling prophecy. He is still deeply unpopular, he has little juice left. There still appears to be plenty of enthusiasm for Harris if you aren’t just doom scrolling a literal propaganda social media network. lol crowds and all, but with her favorability and energy at events it certainly could be true that polling error is off in her favor.
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Read the big change they made to their methodology is to just say fuck it and do their best to make sure that roughly half their respondents voted Trump in 2020 and roughly half their respondents voted Biden in 2020.
Seems to me that this methodology is almost tailor designed to show the 50/50 horse race that the polls currently show.
The cope in this thread is off the charts.
I interpreted Devil’s poll as meaning the opposite. The results may be in doubt. I think there’s a bunch of bad GOP polls to juice Trump numbers and provide “social proof” for deplorables, and Trump will do worse than the polling average.
Barring cheating, Kamala has got this, no worries!
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People ITT are showing their work, show yours. I’m fine with being bearish on things and we may indeed all be fucked, but this kind of post is super unproductive.
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