There are so many variables in the air on this one that you can create your own adventure easily. And this forum is easily to most Doomer pilled place I have ever witnessed. I get it, it seems psychologically easier to assume to worst and be wrong than the other way. And the rich ass holes have infiltrated every thing and the propaganda is flowing. Hopefully it’s not as powerful as they think.
A sample size of 2 elections with trump polling being off when they are def trying to do better isn’t much. And post roe had the opposite effect. 2022 was literally spamming polls creating a narrative that was off. We can’t know which is more powerful.
Small sample (intentional or not) of polling error. The last NYT sienna poll had Harris +12 with women 18-29.
NYT assumed electorate 52% women, 13% 18-29
2008/2012/2016/2020 actual electorate
54-55% women, 15-16% age 18-29.
I have no fucking clue but I refuse to just keep saying yup he is def winning as some doom pilled self fulfilling prophecy. He is still deeply unpopular, he has little juice left. There still appears to be plenty of enthusiasm for Harris if you aren’t just doom scrolling a literal propaganda social media network. lol crowds and all, but with her favorability and energy at events it certainly could be true that polling error is off in her favor.
Read the big change they made to their methodology is to just say fuck it and do their best to make sure that roughly half their respondents voted Trump in 2020 and roughly half their respondents voted Biden in 2020.
Seems to me that this methodology is almost tailor designed to show the 50/50 horse race that the polls currently show.
I interpreted Devil’s poll as meaning the opposite. The results may be in doubt. I think there’s a bunch of bad GOP polls to juice Trump numbers and provide “social proof” for deplorables, and Trump will do worse than the polling average.
People ITT are showing their work, show yours. I’m fine with being bearish on things and we may indeed all be fucked, but this kind of post is super unproductive.
Yea I think that is 100% happening but also think the good pollsters are likely unintentionally weighting towards trump or intentionally as to not get it wrong
GOP pollsters flooding with shit polls is like a certainty
I suppose it should make me appreciate the difficulties involved in polling. Maybe a better word-picker can do it again on the eve of the election.
I think the reason “favor” occurred to me is that Trump’s people, including Elon and Putin, are working to make him appear more likely to win. Trump loves polls showing him ahead.
Pretty sure he’s referring to pollsters using recalled vote this time. They’re obviously doing it to reduce the chance they underestimate Trump again. So I don’t think he’s wrong about that.
Not sure where he’s getting the 2% number, though.
My general stance is that the pollsters are way too deep in the weeds trying to get the right demographics, response rates in demographics, adjusting for all sorts of variables that they may or may not understand.
All of this amounts to an exercise that I’m not sure is any more accurate than just taking a bunch of samples and averaging them
From what I’ve seen polls are just approaching “model” territory now due to all the correcting the pollsters are trying to do.
Here’s the thing. Polls aren’t catching the opinions of all those newly registered voters we heard about after Joe dropped out, T-Swift, etc. Also, apparently, NV went to an automatic registration process that basically defaults to “no party” so a LOT of the independent early voters are going to be Dems that aren’t being counted in the early vote totals.
The election is close, but in no way warrants the amount of doom I see here.
If every person dooming signed up for a phone bank or canvassing shift, it would get their mind off dooming, and talking to voters has a way of grounding you that posting can’t come close to matching.
All we can really say is that the polls are basically tied and also polling has been super unreliable in the past. My gut says Kalama wins this, but I won’t pretend I can defend that on the evidence we have.
My hope is based in the fact that Donald Trump has failed to get over 47% of the vote in either Presidential Election. That 2018 and 2022 went very poorly for Republicans based on historical precedent with Trump at the top of the ticket. And that most of the demographic gains Trump has made for Republicans are with groups that are less likely to vote.
Yeah, it seems like people get worked up about early vote totals every cycle, and they almost always end up being misleading. I know Nate and Harry Enten have implored people to ignore them. Just too many unknown variables.
