Nice and all, but irrelevant. As you know, KY is as safe red as they come.
I think as an analytical person itâs tough to accept that the polls could be trash now. I like the idea of math nerds using the power of numbers to give us a calm, accurate prediction about something as chaotic and emotional as an election. Itâs soothing to look at the graphs and nod along. Trying to unskew the polls makes you the dumb hopium weirdo.
But I dunno, I was kind of shocked this week when I started reading more about the methodologies. Way more guesswork than I realized. Polling seems like an incredibly difficult task in 2024.
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This thread is actually pretty doomer relative to the fundamentals.
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Evidence for believing trump wins:
Polls will maybe be off in his favor again?
Early vote analytics which have been useless in the past everywhere other than NV and appears those are useless now too
Evidence for Kamala win:
Ahead in polls in states she needs
Trump hasnât been successful in an election since 2016
Indications gop people are defecting in small numbers
Related to above, We donât know how many people voted for him in 2020 but wonât now because of J6 and shit like that but itâs some small number as well
Enthusiasm is I think pretty clearly very high on dem side
Women I think are going to crush him
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NV is negative in that we either donât know whatâs going on or itâs bad. And then in the case that itâs bad, whatever correlation that has to the rest of the race.
But the magnitude of the badness is probably that she went from 50/50 in NV to like 40/60.
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Itâs kinda depressing that NV got flipped so easily by the no tax on tips thing thatâs never ever actually happening, but it does prove that in future elections, Democrats really just need to promise everyone a pony and free sprinkles on everyoneâs ice cream for life or something, and theyâre set.
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Hereâs some work:
I already posted my map and prediction above.
NV seems lost based on what we know
AZ seems correlated, so Iâm going to put that in
GA ainât letting Kamala win no matter what given all the rules theyâve changed
NC seems bleak
Iâve got dems holding everything else, which means Kamala wins 270-268. But I think NE is going to fuck with things, SC will let them and Trump wins it in the House.
I mean for all your âlol weâre fucked what the fuck is wrong with you peopleâ rhetoric, youâre literally predicting a (close) EV win and assuming that shenanigans will follow and succeed (which isnât the worst assumption, but still). The overall doomerism doesnât really jibe with your actual predictions.
Well, I donât know what to to tell you. Iâm predicting a Trump win going down like that, which will be just about the most painful way it can go. There are other ways of course. In the end, I see him ship and Iâm prepared for at least 4+ years of discontent (and thatâs putting it mildly). If thatâs not good enough for you to justify my feeling doomed, I apologize.
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I donât think that âno tax on tipsâ plausibly maps onto the (potentially) bad looking early voting. The early voting is bad specifically because people in middle-of-nowhere NV are voting at a higher rate than people in Clark.
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Yea Iâm not ready to throw out NV, and I honestly donât think they can do anything about changing the Nebraska, they already had people in that state refusing when they tried the other day and I just donât see it happening when it would be so clearly bullshit at that point, itâs one thing to change it before but after eh
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Yeah I hear you, was really just throwing out commentary about the state of NV in general and why itâs even in play.
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Wut? Rasmussen closing at the end? Curious.
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The answer in NV is we donât know whatâs going on. Period.
Demos with large numbers of people moving to NV have changed too much in the past 4 years to have any clue. Even 1/3 being Trump heavy would potentially be enough to tilt the election in Trumpâs favor and that is for sure on the table even though most people in NV do not wear politics on their sleeves. It is a very very very low yard sign state.
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Honestly, I feel somewhat doomed regardless. The sheer fact that half the country is this gullible, stupid, complete assholes (take your pick) is fucking depressing and gives me a feeling of hopelessness. Even if Harris squeaks out a win. Nothing short if a Harris landslide will improve my moral
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I think we might see a much closer Day of between the reds and blues than we have in the last few cycles. If Day off can move closer to 1:1 we are in pretty good shape
What would you even consider a Harris landslide? Like realistically I think the best she could hope for as far as electoral votes goes is winning everything Biden won, plus NC. Thatâs a pretty healthy win but itâs not exactly Reagan '84 either.
Texas going blue
And/or Senate 51 D
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The next two weeks are going to be absolutely awful. How the fuck is this really happening.
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