2021 College Football Gameday Thread

Let’s fucking gooooooo

I think the appropriate response is to send out the 3rd string linebacker to beat him up and get ejected.

https://twitter.com/betmgm/status/1467303188017692672?s=21

Not gonna lie that’s one of the best angle shots and moves I’ve ever seen.

Faking a slide should be a penalty, just like running with the ball after signalling for a fair catch.

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The fact that it’s a straight up rules angle shot and that he executed it so perfectly tells me he’s been waiting to gin card somebody with it for a while. Wouldn’t be surprised if he jumped to #1 on the MEL KIPER BIG BOARD for such heady play.

Let’s check in with CFB ubermensch Jeff Sagarin and his rankings (predictor):

Heading into rivalry week he had:

  1. UGA
  2. tOSU
  3. Bama
  4. UM

Heading into championship week he had:

  1. UGA
  2. tOSU
  3. Bama
  4. UM

Heading into bowl season he has:

  1. UGA
  2. tOSU
  3. Bama
  4. UM

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I don’t think that’s unreasonable at all for a predictive rating.

not sure, they’re pretty close so one could do it I think.

problem is that it’s a 13 game sample, and Georgia does better in 12/13. Bama laid some turds this year.

fucking a just tell me where I need to buy airplane tickets

Fuck off, committee

Meh. Tougher path for sure, but the endless satisfaction that would come from beating both Georgia AND Alabama to win a National Title would be unparalleled

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Miami. Big win vs Dallas. The wife would rather go to Disney later in the winter vs seeing her Bearcats get destroyed in Dallas.

How hard are you mashing that Michigan button right now?

Did you mean Alabama?

Pinny lines -13.5 (lol) and -7

https://twitter.com/SNFRules/status/1467307885218705410

Refs screwed up. This should be treated like a fake fair catch.

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wow brady with the 2 yard pick 6, with only 22 seconds left in the half

little too aggressive imo

I pretty much agree with this, but that fake was so good. It was like the minimum amount of fake possible to get the desired effect. I’ve seen guys kind of lose their footing, or they’re trying to juke someone, and it ends up looking kind of like that.

Neverthless, if you’re gonna give the QB protection, they need to be exposed to the downside. If it looks fakish, then ball is dead.

It’s a lot tougher call if it’s an RB or WR doing it, because I think they’re technically allowed to slide, but they never do. So if an RB does the same thing, no one falls for it. You would almost have to call it differently for QBs than you do for everyone else. I guess that is what actually happens anyway, so codifying it is probably not the worst thing in the world.

1 Like

Yeah it’s pretty obvious when the QB is doing it. And it doesn’t happen very often. Should be pretty easy to call. For RB or WR the fake is going to be a lot less effective because no one expects them to slide.

It’s not unreasonable, it’s just one of the key limitations of doing this as a heavily-regressed model on all college football teams. I see it as mostly a question of where you want the model to be accurate. Are we minimizing prediction error across all college football teams or just for matchups between the top teams? It’s highly nonlinear at the top, so a model that fits everything well (Sagarin does) can really diverge when scoped on just the best teams.

Right, that’s a great question. Along these lines, how many more times would Utah have to curb stomp Oregon to be more than -3 neutral? It reminds me a lot of fantasy point modeling actually. If someone just blind-fired based on those models (the best ones) without carefully considering a lot of qualitative factors, they’d almost certainly be lighting money on fire.