She’s obviously an expert but I just don’t agree. First, never get worked as the ref, the GOP is always going to downplay expectations. Second, a 7 seat pickup is just not very likely based on any reasonable interpretation of current polling data.
Just deleted my entire post because I’m bad at reading. 7 seat gain not impossible but 5-6 seems way more likely.
I think lose AL, gain CO, AZ, NC, and ME is the starting point. Then it’s just a matter of how many you can win out of IA, MT, SC, GAx2, KS, AK
So her background is in reporting, before this she was at NPR, The Hill, and NBC before that. I know who some of her sources are and let’s just say they’re the more independent types that evaluate data and aren’t themselves politicians. It’s people you wouldn’t have heard of, not Karl Rove.
I was also surprised to see 7, but it makes sense.
A net pickup of 3 is baked in, with Iowa appearing more likely bringing it to 51-49.
On top of that you have another 6+ appearing competitive and 1-2 statistically should flip.
Projecting a gain of 2+ seats and not putting Colorado as likely D seems mutually exclusive.
Don’t think anyone on here, or elsewhere I read, described either as “likable” during the primaries. There was a TON of dislike for Warren.
Republicans are going to win both Georgia seats. Neither Warnock nor Ossoff is going to get 50% of the vote and they’ll both lose runoffs. Democrat voters are notorious for not showing up for runoff elections.
In positive news, my district is poised to re-elect a Democrat in a GOP gerrymandered district.
https://twitter.com/jslovegrove/status/1315982546858053632?s=21
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A couple dialysis companies are spending $86M on non-stop ads to tell us that dialysis companies will go out of business if prop 23 passes.
https://voterguide.sos.ca.gov/propositions/23/
Requires physician, nurse practitioner or physician assistant on site during dialysis treatment. Prohibits clinics from reducing services without state approval. Prohibits clinics from refusing to treat patients based on payment source. Fiscal Impact: Increased state and local government costs likely in the low tens of millions of dollars annually.
Yeah, put “likeable” in quotes because what’s going on is similar to what you see with dating and society generally. Women have a tougher time with aging due to the emphasis placed on their looks (and unlike men, they don’t get offsetting bonus points for accumulating power), and it translates to politics.
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Warren was the favorite candidate of this site for a good chunk of the primary process and has very high favorable ratings among Democrats so there is some selective memory going on there.
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Go here, search Liz and Warren. Enjoy.
JFC you aren’t seriously this stupid are you? Warren is absolutely liked by a majority of Democrats which was your original statement.
Maybe Warren was more liked outside of unstuck than I thought. My point still stands about here. Also calm down.
Everyone here liked Warren (prob split evenly btw her and Bernie) until she abandoned M4A, then she lost all support.
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I still like Warren.
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This is also coincidentally the moment when she went from being the front runner in the primary to not even belonging in the conversation.
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As predicted by some of us here the moment she shifted.
I think its a pretty clear case of: most people like Warren somewhat or a lot, but a smaller number of people with unresolved issues with women really hate her and are really vocal about it. The haters are probably sticking out more in our collective memory.
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2022 has the potential to be such a great slate for a Dem mid-term. No real tough seats to defend while Republicans have to defend WI, IA, OH, PA, NC, FL and to lesser extent SC, KS, and AK.
Maybe. Assuming Biden wins, I think by 2022 there will likely be some baked in pendulum swinging back the other way. It seems inevitable that low info voters will have an attitude of “Golly Dems have been in power for 2 years and some things still suck! Boo Dems!”
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