Re: Warren, people love/loved her lecturing banks/Wall Street because there is near unanimous agreement they deserve it. That’s a very, very potent political tool but the rest of her political skills/instincts are no good, which is why she crashed and burned.
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I think this is probably correct. Elizabeth Warren is an incredibly talented person who is a leader in her field. Unfortunately her field is bankruptcy law not politics and it shows. I’m really happy our side has a big name in bankruptcy law in the senate. Not sure making a big name in academia the POTUS is a great idea. I think it’s in the West Wing for a reason. It’s appealing to us, but anti intellectualism is a powerful thing in this country and she’s nothing if not a loud public intellectual.
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Is the Texas state legislature more in play than the Presidency/Senate races? If so, is that because it’s the one state where the R 2010 gerrymandering has actually backfired (rather than merely being weakened)?
I think the map is strong enough in 2022 to overcome this. Similar to Republicans gaining seats in a blue wave election in 2018. That plus continuing demographic change and hopefully Dems do something to make voting more accessible in the first two years of a Biden presidency.
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This is part of the LOL fuck you approach and maybe the most effective part. Republicans know that when nothing gets done, people tend to blame the president. As a result, wholesale blocking of everything under a Dem POTUS tends to benefit the GOP.
Democrats have a conscience and try to play nice, especially on issues of national importance. This asymmetrical warfare means Republican presidents get more done than Democrats.
The right response is to go nuclear when we have power.
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eh, NV, NH, AZ all have to be hard defended in a +R environment vs pickups of maybe WI/PA and I guess NC.
Just too unlikely in 2 years any of the others go but LOL RUBIO would be nice.
This might be too optimistic of a post, so disclaimer to all of the WAAF people out there before reading.
I actually think we are close to the tipping point of Dems having a Senate advantage for the foreseeable future if we win 2020. Looking ahead on a 30 year timeline.
States the Dems should never lose a Senate election in (16):
California
Connecticut
Delaware
Hawaii
Illinois
Maryland
Massachusetts
Minnesota
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
Oregon
Rhode Island
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
States Dems should win a large majority of the time, potential to be solid blue in the near future (8):
Colorado
Maine
Michigan
Nevada
New Hampshire
North Carolina
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
States showing signs of trending blue (6):
Arizona
Florida
Georgia
Iowa
Ohio
South Carolina
States Dems should target heavily for potential pickups, could be blue in the future (4)
Alaska
Kansas
Montana
Texas
I get that this is still a technical disadvantage as the 25th state for Dems is already a solid electoral college victory, but I think a lock on the Presidency and a mid 50s Senate with potential to reach 60+ is possible in the foreseeable future.
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If the map looked like that, wouldn’t both parties just shift to the left, with Republicans adopting policies similar to Biden’s platform, and Dems becoming true progressives?
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Eventually yes, and this would be a great result for everyone if it happened. But there is definitely a lag involved with something like that.
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we need elizabeth warren at treasury. she could be as influential as hamilton.
… if only ma didn’t have a gop guv 
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no, gerrymandering backfired wherever it got closer, and the gop bet hard on suburbs. look at VA 2017, DC and richmond suburbs crushed. House 2018, suburbs crushed. 2020 it’s only gotten worse for gop.
That’s all based on the current political environment. States will move back to the right once Trump is defeated, so unless we get a new VRA and a SCOTUS to uphold it, it all falls apart.
Meanwhile, once SCOTUS throws out the ACA this year, what was the last major piece of liberal/progressive legislation still standing?
On the other hand if Biden wins, but we don’t pack the court and nuke the filibuster, 2024 might look like this:
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The Republicans have seen that map coming for a while and decided instead to double down on racism and voter suppression.
They seem to be painting themselves into a corner where the only two options left are white-rule fascism disguised as democracy, or take a cyanide pill in the bunker.
Door number 1
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Tennessee bourbon I assume
I feel like they’re past the point of no return as far as coming back to center - which is scary.
well, you would think the republicans would have ALREADY started adapting their positions, but here we are. They’ve doubled down on voter suppression, senate obstructionism, etc and there’s no clear evidence that they’ll suddenly start to change.
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that’s correct. we are not going to get republicans shifting left. republicans need to be dismantled politically, and only then progressives need to split from democrats.
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