I might have to split the difference.
This is correct except Bernie really needs to break 50%. The difference between this primary and the 2016 Republican primary is that the Republican voters made it clear from the beginning that they werenāt interested in an establishment candidate. Trump and Cruz were pulling in over 50% of the vote in nearly every state, sometimes by a lot, and Trump was nearly breaking 50% by himself fairly early. The mess of establishment candidates were just fighting over who would pick up the majority of the scraps, which didnāt ultimately matter.
The moderate candidates in this primary are doing much better. Itās delusional to think that Bernieās 26% share in his backyard will be good enough vs two moderates who combined for almost 45% and itās embarrassing that like half this forum insists that tonight was a win for him. There are two ways this plays out from here: a moderate candidate starts consolidating 50%+ support on their own and wins the nomination, or the moderate vote continues to be split, nobody gets 50% at the convention, and some moderate candidate is picked there. It should also be concerning that I already predicted it would play out like this:
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How in the world do you define the words ābroadā and ācoalitionā where bernie doesnāt have the broadest? Itās the largest, and the most diverse demographically are you saying LGBTCIAGOPete has a broader coalition?
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I personally find these results pretty discouraging even though I generally am for Bernie at this point. NH is very friendly territory for him and winning 1/4 of the votes is not great. At some point the establishment is going to rally behind a single candidate and itāll be hard for Sanders to win at that point. I think that an āoutsiderā candidate needs to win decisively against a fractured field to actually hang on in the end. It seems to me that whichever establishment candidate is in the lead after Super Tuesday is going to get the partyās full support and ultimately be the nominee.
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Ideologically itās not that diverse though.
This is how it feels to me too.
Of course, these are only data points. Thereās still hope that Bernie is running a bit bad.
Well itās the only coalition that contains people that actually have an ideology if thatās what you mean. What is Peteās ideology? Things are bad but should be good? Twirling towards freedom?
Bernieās coalition contains literal tankies and old women who watch msnbc 8 hours a day but are annoyed that they keep trying to talk him down and walmart workers who probably have a grab bag of a million different ideologies including likely some severely āright wingā ones. Seems pretty broad and diverse to me.
A good point. If you have a high enough % of ideological true believers you should pick up some of the driftwood who delegate their votes based on analyses of the shapes contained within their post-caffeine morning fecal episodes.
Or not when the machinery of mass media is telling you that ideology is literal death either in Central Park or because your wait time at the hospital will increase by 40 seconds.
The huge difference this year is Bernie isnāt the one with minority support problems. NH was very friendly Bernie candidate last year because white people hated Hillary and he got crushed in the south because he had no minority support.
This year Pete/Klob are the ones with minority support problems and going to get crushed in the south/CA/TX etc.
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I hope youāre right. Weāll see.
Me too buddy. That said anyone who supports Bernie should be donating time and or money.
I mean Iām not telling you what you should do, but that kinda stuff could push him over the edge and we can finally maybe make this country work for us. Sure he aināt gonna get most of his shit passed but I still think he can do a ton of shit that will be popular as hell and open the doors for more progressives in congress and the presidency in the future.
Though one thing that is really scary is Bernie winning, becoming president, and the economy finally collapses at some point. Thats something all dem presidents will have to deal with, but both sides will be saying it was because Bernies a socialist if it happens to him which will suck. Nevermind that he is far and away the best person to help people when it happens. I dunno maybe he can turn it around and do a bunch of popular shit to help people and turn it into a win.
This is a bad look at a forum of gamblers, dude
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Anyways, I wish I had the confidence some of you seem to be brimming with. Seems crazy to be nervous about the candidate that won the first two states but I am.
Biden tanking means Bernie got 1st place locked up. Only question now is how close itāll be which will determine if he gets ratfucked at the convention.
Yea I assume convention ratfucking is a given, hence my concern that media coverage will prop up his opponents and slow him down just enough to make that possible.
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If the kinds of āshenanigansā that upset you or that you think are unfair are literally just increasing voter turnout and participation, you sound more like a Republican than a Bernie supporter.
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Really not feeling the āBernie Sanders winning is bad for Bernie Sandersā takes.
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Yeah were in a great position with biden tanking. Wed be in a much worse position if Bernie crushed nh by 20 points again but biden came in 2nd in Iowa and nh
Iāll take an L here. Of the shenanigans, I certainly picked a poor one. I likely have thrown this in unfairly on a list with all the other more valid concerns from the 2016 caucuses. Somehow i learned all about Robertās rules of order from the 2016 Nevada caucuses and now 2020 Iowa. I will purge this as a complaint.
More turnout is great and any argument against it is a bad one.
Harry Reid is a defender of the caucuses. In his defense, his argument is to use it as a tool to drive voter registeration. In the primaries though, we know it ultimately suppresses the vote, and its format could put undue pressure on people to possibly not vote their first choice. If my boss and union leader got me PTO, and happened to be at my caucus location, I would certainly feel pressure to align with them. But that sounds like my own personal problem. My distaste for caucuses is getting the best of me.
As i understood it, this was also a directed push for PTO specifically the HRC endorsed culinary union members (who are willing to send fliers saying Bernie is after their health care in 2020). That was the post that reminded me of this from 2016. This wasnāt all casino employees, but specifically the culinary union members. I will also give Reid the benefit of the doubt and assume he made a similar request in November to give PTO for these union workers to vote in the general election.
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You are hanging your thesis on two very white states. Once we are through NV and SC, we will have a sample much more representative of the US. I would like to see more polls, but Bernie can get most of the way to a winning coalition with voters of color, even if white people want to play pick-a-moderate. Black people were Bidenās one and only strength, so clearly being able to peel them off after itās abundantly clear that his campaign is dead is an easy and obvious way to build a margin. Nothing is certain, but aorn, Bernie looks like he has a more plausible appeal to black and Latinx voters than anyone else, mainly because heās already made it.