How is there no polling in NV since early Jan? God knows what’s going to happen there.
2 Likes
Wat?
Yep, NH did make it tougher for college kids to vote but this still all rings true.
If AOC calls up a bunch of minority-owned small businesses in the Bronx and Queens and asks them to give their workers off on primary day in NYC, then asks a restaurant workers union to throw its support behind Bernie, would you call that shenanigans or politics?
3 Likes
Incorrect takes abound.
Bernie benefits greatly from Klob and Pete doing well—nearly as much as he benefits from winning. Every vote they suck from Biden in NV/SC helps keep them afloat until ST, which is extremely beneficial for him. Not getting a bunch of white votes in NH doesn’t mean a single fuck. Plus no matter what they say now, every D is coming home when it’s Bernie v Trump. They will rationalize it as “he won’t be able to get everything done, checks and balances” and plus Trump will massively drive rank and file Klob/Pete voters to the polls.
He won, I wouldn’t say he crushed. The margin of victory will be less than the polls. It’s currently at about 1.7%.
We know what’s going to happen there. One of Pete’s staffers took a job with the Nevada Dems.
2 Likes
Does it make a difference if the boss who gave them the extra PTO is there at the caucus to see who they aligned with?
Blatant misrepresentation? Really?
Blatant misrepresentation? Bullshit. 10 hours ago you said Pete had a chance to win it outright without cheating, but your guess was that they’d be able to cheat so you figured he would win NH and Bernie would hav eto get 15-20% more votes than second place to actually win.
3 Likes
Pete going to get asesinada in NV.
Literally drawing dead.
Wow big brain conspiracy theory
What if the media made Bernie look better in the polls than he actually was so 1. His supporters would get complacent and 2. When he won by less than the polls they could say he was underperforming
I could be the left wing Alex Jones
3 Likes
Was that mentioned anywhere in those “shenanigans” you cited? Like I don’t like Harry Reid, and I disagree with his support being for HRC in that situation, but he didn’t do anything illegal or immoral. He basically acted as an HRC surrogate to get out the vote.
1 Like
I met this one girl a few years back who was pretty nice, was a jd, but literally was a member of the federalist society and former staffer for Rubio. I just couldn’t do it. 
My understanding is that it’s very difficult and very expensive to poll well, so no one bothers.
This is arguably true strategically, my general point is that the apparent reluctance of late-deciding voters to vote Bernie is worrisome. Bernie can’t win the nomination getting 25-30% of the vote everywhere, even if that wins most of the states, because he probably gets screwed at a brokered convention then.
1 Like
I’m happy to place a bet on this, Bernie vs. Pete heads up for Nevada. I’ve got Bernie, you’ve got Pete. Name your amount up to $500.
1 Like
There’s no reason to believe Bernie’s ceiling is 28-30%. Iowa and NH are grossly misrepresentative of the Democratic electorate.
Bernie will get 40+ in NV and prob 35+ in SC.
Right, which is why I said I hope this changes as we move into less white states. I’m maintaining a bigly level of uncertainty on this until I actually see it happen, though.
I agree with most of this. I’m still not convinced Bernie is going to pick up many voters as the field thins. But I can’t really come up with a plausible scenario on how it’s going to play out in SC and super Tuesday. I could see SC looking something like NH. Biden, Steyer, Klob, Buttigieg chop things up and Bernie wins with <30%.
Bernie will win a majority of delegates on ST. Warren will drop out and endorse him.
Biden and Pete will be just about done. Klob, too.
I refuse to believe Bloomberg is viable.