2020 New Hampshire Democratic primary Thread * 1st past the post wins...

The money, the ungodly money bloom has.

I’d from a watch to world the burn view have Bernie to agree to take Bloomberg as his VP with the understanding that he would step down after one term, and that Bloomberg’s only job in return was to fuck with Trump 24/7 over every goddam thing he could hammer him with - Trump’s gotta be a -300 favorite to bust a blood vessel in his head just on Mike pointing how poor he actually is, never mind all the other stuff he could fuck with him over.

MM MD

1 Like

Yes, that part. Kids are great.

I might have to split the difference.

This is correct except Bernie really needs to break 50%. The difference between this primary and the 2016 Republican primary is that the Republican voters made it clear from the beginning that they weren’t interested in an establishment candidate. Trump and Cruz were pulling in over 50% of the vote in nearly every state, sometimes by a lot, and Trump was nearly breaking 50% by himself fairly early. The mess of establishment candidates were just fighting over who would pick up the majority of the scraps, which didn’t ultimately matter.

The moderate candidates in this primary are doing much better. It’s delusional to think that Bernie’s 26% share in his backyard will be good enough vs two moderates who combined for almost 45% and it’s embarrassing that like half this forum insists that tonight was a win for him. There are two ways this plays out from here: a moderate candidate starts consolidating 50%+ support on their own and wins the nomination, or the moderate vote continues to be split, nobody gets 50% at the convention, and some moderate candidate is picked there. It should also be concerning that I already predicted it would play out like this:

2 Likes

How in the world do you define the words “broad” and “coalition” where bernie doesn’t have the broadest? It’s the largest, and the most diverse demographically are you saying LGBTCIAGOPete has a broader coalition?

6 Likes

I personally find these results pretty discouraging even though I generally am for Bernie at this point. NH is very friendly territory for him and winning 1/4 of the votes is not great. At some point the establishment is going to rally behind a single candidate and it’ll be hard for Sanders to win at that point. I think that an “outsider” candidate needs to win decisively against a fractured field to actually hang on in the end. It seems to me that whichever establishment candidate is in the lead after Super Tuesday is going to get the party’s full support and ultimately be the nominee.

1 Like

Ideologically it’s not that diverse though.

This is how it feels to me too.

Of course, these are only data points. There’s still hope that Bernie is running a bit bad.

Well it’s the only coalition that contains people that actually have an ideology if that’s what you mean. What is Pete’s ideology? Things are bad but should be good? Twirling towards freedom?

Bernie’s coalition contains literal tankies and old women who watch msnbc 8 hours a day but are annoyed that they keep trying to talk him down and walmart workers who probably have a grab bag of a million different ideologies including likely some severely “right wing” ones. Seems pretty broad and diverse to me.

A good point. If you have a high enough % of ideological true believers you should pick up some of the driftwood who delegate their votes based on analyses of the shapes contained within their post-caffeine morning fecal episodes.

Or not when the machinery of mass media is telling you that ideology is literal death either in Central Park or because your wait time at the hospital will increase by 40 seconds.

The huge difference this year is Bernie isn’t the one with minority support problems. NH was very friendly Bernie candidate last year because white people hated Hillary and he got crushed in the south because he had no minority support.

This year Pete/Klob are the ones with minority support problems and going to get crushed in the south/CA/TX etc.

4 Likes

I hope you’re right. We’ll see.

Me too buddy. That said anyone who supports Bernie should be donating time and or money.

I mean I’m not telling you what you should do, but that kinda stuff could push him over the edge and we can finally maybe make this country work for us. Sure he ain’t gonna get most of his shit passed but I still think he can do a ton of shit that will be popular as hell and open the doors for more progressives in congress and the presidency in the future.

Though one thing that is really scary is Bernie winning, becoming president, and the economy finally collapses at some point. Thats something all dem presidents will have to deal with, but both sides will be saying it was because Bernies a socialist if it happens to him which will suck. Nevermind that he is far and away the best person to help people when it happens. I dunno maybe he can turn it around and do a bunch of popular shit to help people and turn it into a win.

This is a bad look at a forum of gamblers, dude

2 Likes

Anyways, I wish I had the confidence some of you seem to be brimming with. Seems crazy to be nervous about the candidate that won the first two states but I am.

Biden tanking means Bernie got 1st place locked up. Only question now is how close it’ll be which will determine if he gets ratfucked at the convention.

Yea I assume convention ratfucking is a given, hence my concern that media coverage will prop up his opponents and slow him down just enough to make that possible.

1 Like

If the kinds of “shenanigans” that upset you or that you think are unfair are literally just increasing voter turnout and participation, you sound more like a Republican than a Bernie supporter.

3 Likes