That’s running way below expectation. I would think in game with the best penalty taker from each team it should be closer to 75% overall and in shootouts somewhere between 65-70%
Sure but how often do 75% free throw shoooters have games where they shoot 7/13? All the time, right?
I assume there is some sort of PK analytics that probably help guide strategy. I haven’t looked into any of it. My slightly above casual fan view is that trying to send the keeper the wrong way and rolling in a saveable kick (were the keeper to guess correctly) is not optimal.
These guys are so good and so accurate. The don’t need to even blast it. Just something head height on the sides will be pretty unsaveable given what keepers currently do. Now if that becomes popular, then the keepers will adapt, but until then it seems like a better way to go.
I think Hakimi and one of the other Moroccans just shot straight at where the keeper was standing. Even that seems like a better play than what these guys are doing now.
I’m sure above ideas aren’t exactly unique. Someone has surely thought them and dismissed them. What’s the rationale?
It’s much tougher to accurately hit side netting/top corner than you think.
Basically like 3 players in world football regularly take those kind of Pks.
Even if you’re not trying to blast it? I don’t even think you need side netting. Back of the net is fine as long as it’s towards the sides.
I’ve seen people who are nowhere near pro level who are capable of hitting the post or crossbar from outside the box when they’re just screwing around. How much harder can this really be? I would have thought that if I put a one foot by one foot circular target somewhere in the goal, most professional players could hit it from the spot at a greater than 75% clip. Am I wrong about that?
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In training sure
In a WC knock out game with millions watching. ¯_(ツ)_/¯
As hip said, most players don’t have any experience taking PK in an actual game. Good teams have their best player take them. In a given year most teams will have only 1 to 3 guys take one most of the time
There are two ways to kick a ball for a PK. Side of your foot (placing it) or laces (power). I would not advise going for the top of the net with the side of your foot. You would have to lean back a bit and then it can go very wrong.
Players also don’t go for the top half with power because it’s easier to miss the net. Everyone remembers and still cites Baggio and Beckham. These kind of misses get remembered for 50 years where a tame shot doesn’t.
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Are these guys not practicing penalties a ton? If you’re in the knockout stages of WC, that seems like the kind of thing it would be a good idea to spend some time on.
Traditionally it’s something you would do at the end of training.
But, you can’t simulate the nerves or pressure and these guys had 2 practices between the pause of their seasons and the start of the tournament.
@Aofrantic is spot on here but there’s another layer here. You’re 120 minutes in and physically and mentally exhausted when you get into PKs
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Pinnacle of the sport, only comes around every 4 years, most watched event in the world and you get to the climax, shrug and say “well, these guys don’t really practice this that much”. I alone can fix this, just haven’t figured out how yet.
Even last Euros, Mbappe missed one for France that lost them the match. He’s the best player in football!
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I think avg pen conversion rate in the best domestic leagues is a little better than 75%, with better players around 80% and a few freaks at 85% with big samples.
yep this is wrong. Sure there are crossbar challenge training games and in small samples we get jawdropping things, but nobody’s consistently hitting a post or a crossbar 3/4ths of the time from the 12 yards, at any speed, let alone when they’re drilling the ball.
Ppl see shooters scoring on panenkas and other offspeed junk and it can all look very easy, but these pens are only possible because the shooters and keepers are third- and fourth-leveling each other. Then throw in the trend towards stutter-stepping runups while the shooter waits for the last instant to decide where to shoot hoping the keeper will flinch and commit a split-second before the shooter connects
In short imo penalties are way harder than they look because of fatigue & pressure and bc elite keepers are incredible beyond belief—but shooters still convert 4 in 5 because they are also mutants. Another thing is that the conversion rates for in-game penalties are higher than shootout penalties, presumably because of psychology stuff and because keepers can get dialed in differently when they’re seeing a bunch in a row.
I hear yall about how the simplicity of pens can add a certain kind of drama, but I still like moving it back to the 50% place(s), because imo it would be equally dramatic but with more types of drama; instead of just getting tragedy & comedy you’d also get beauty while being more fair and less weird. Like if you’re watching barca practice would you rather watch ten minutes of pens or messi & ronaldinho kicking comets past valdés?
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261 for 370 on PKs in WC = 70.5%. The psychologist’s recommendations for shooters
Practice every part including placing the ball. It should feel robotic.
Breathe.
If you score, don’t hold back on the celly. It helps your team’s other shooters with their nerves.
“ As you watch soccer at work and hear strange guttural noises around the office, you can expect a few things from the World Cup’s knockout rounds: Brazilians will flop, the English will find a way to humiliate themselves and some matches will end in the agony of a shootout. ”
You cant practice it in the same way though.
You will be huddled with your teammates. You have a ~40 yard walk. The ball will be in a different spot. The ref might hold you to pause more or less.
Don’t see much hope for Croatia. They haven’t won a KO game this century in 90 minutes, and Brazil have such excellent depth the extra time wouldn’t be easy either.
They also had a hard 120 minutes vs Japan while Brazil was in 4th gear after 30 minutes and their attackers all got the last half hour to kick their feet up on the bench.
I see another easy 3-0 type of game.
Have Brazil to qualify, win and -1.
Argentina and Netherlands is the “we haven’t played anyone yet” game. The best team these teams have faced is the USA. BUT this Argentina side has played Brazil 3x in the last 16 months in meaningful games and lost 0 of them. The Dutch aren’t quite frauds, but they aren’t good. Can Gakpo/Depay continue to convert half their shots and they win without controlling a game? Maybe! But I really like Argentina here. They are much the better side, have the best defense in the tournament and I like them to win a close game 1-0.
Have bet them to qualify, win, and win to nil.
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edit: I see my post was covered, I still think most pros if they practice could side foot pass it into a 3×3 foot area in the top corner 90% of the time and that’s basically unsavable.
A lot of top takers strike it with their laces to the left corner (from their perspective if they are right footed) about a foot from the post along the ground on about 60-70+% of their pens and then side foot to the other side of the net the rest of the time.
2nd edit: I think Harry Kane is above 85% and he just laces it into one of the top corners every time.