I would only believe them if their contacts in their chosen field given them access to insider information.
It’s like talking to people who think that they can beat craps because they found the perfect dice-rolling techniques.
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I may sound dumb here but I thought there were a tiny number of people who can manipulate dice? Not perfect but to get an edge. Am I nuts?
Here is a random gambling question.
I was playing ultimate Texas Holden waiting for a plo seat yesterday and notice the bonus bet pays 50:1 for a royal flush.
I assume this is the single worst bet in any casino? Do worse odds exists in a casino?
Only if you don’t get paid at all for anything else.
Wizard of Odds has that bet at 1-6% HA depending on the pay table.
I’m sure people claim that but I haven’t seen any academic source that substantiates it.
I mean if such a thing was possible, then everybody would be able to do it and craps wouldn’t exist in casinos anymore.
Whew good thing I didn’t get my PhD. I’m happy to find 3-4 good looking mutual funds in my plan and then buy and hold. Things have turned over enough that I get to repick every few years.
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Wow I can’t believe the HA is that small paying 50:1 on a 65,000:1 event!
There are probably people who can manipulate a dice roll with high probability, but in craps, you are supposed to bounce the dice off the spiky back wall, which should be an effective randomizer for non-robots.
That’s the extent of my stock investing. Buy index funds, hold and then…profit?
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Methinks that it must be biased to give big hands (but not as good as the odds). ??? Not a true random “shuffle”. Player gets to get a flush or full house with some frequency and gets that hit of winning, all the while losing.
All the research says this is the only profitable strategy.
Usually it’s more, but as people have said you’re still getting paid with a normal flush etc so it’s not as bad.
I got lucky back in early 2008. I had to move money between plans when my corporate owner changed. My money came all the way out and was on the sidelines for a net 7% drop in a few day period in the fallout of the mortgage collapse.
I think my hands off is doing pretty well. Started with 0 at age 35 in year 2000. Now 56 with 7 figures. My input was probably on the 200-250k range over the years with lower contribution early and higher late.
You transfer anything over to bonds? Or have you been letting the index funds ride?
I have a mix of index funds, traditional funds, and also some target age funds. I’ve never consolidated from the different companies. Probably at 56 it’s time to do that.
The traditional funds and target age funds both have bond components.
I’m probably heavy on stocks just due to relative growth. I plan (hope) to be able to consult until 70 so still have a fairy longish horizon. Plus the wife is 8 years younger so she will be 62 then.
Probably gonna have to diversify at some point. Shift over to bonds starting middle age and away from stocks.
I have liquid assets but other than that it’s in stocks.
Would be nice to have 7 figures waiting for me by my late 50s. I’d bet against it but you never know 
Yes, but check the expense ratios. And get some more bond funds as you get closer to retirement.
keno?