Winnie the Coup: Xi under house arrest?

Nothing confirmed so far but it’s all over twitter.

https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1573322602784980993?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1573481779163447297|twgr^|twcon^s3_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ndtv.com%2Fworld-news%2Finternet-abuzz-with-rumours-of-xi-jinpings-house-arrest-coup-in-china-3374956

https://twitter.com/im_ironfairy/status/1573760627625152513

Huge if true.gif no?

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Quality title.

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I wanted to post something about this earlier but I haven’t yet found any sources that look credible.

i dont believe you

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:popcorn:

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Yeah, I’m no Team ProbablyNotaCoup for now, but the airspace thing is weird. Does anyone have a baseline for about how often Xi addresses the public?

How much air traffic over China’s interior is normal? Why would coup plotters shut down air traffic? Why are there still planes flying around if China’s airspace is closed due to a coup?

:vince1:

Found this:

Seems like Eastern China should have a flight density comparable to Europe in the before times. Not sure about during pandemic times, though.

Maybe it’s an Erdogan move where you start a coup against yourself and see who joins in.

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This is the 2018 version of that map. You can turn the FORECAST2018 layer off in the Content section. It seems like there are typically a lot of intra-China flights.

https://gis.icao.int/portal/home/webmap/viewer.html?webmap=44a7ec370db547e6a31afa727427b6f9

Then if you look at something like FlightAware Live right now. There are definitely some inside China, but a lot seem to be going around through the South China Sea.

:tinfoil:

Why would flights be grounded during a coup

I think this is just the common path. I’ve clicked at least 10 of these flights and their previous paths matched this route.

https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1573766630643011590?t=RiyXKxr9ziK6Lpd_i1LD4Q&s=19

If China was canceling loads and loads of flights, why are we looking at flight tracking sites no one knows how to interpret rather than news articles about the wave of mysterious flight cancellations?

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Pretty sure if there’s a coup in China the first people to know won’t be Falun Gong propagandists.

https://twitter.com/sumitsaurabh/status/1573654164755750912?s=21

https://twitter.com/intelcrab/status/1573751581350182917?s=21

https://twitter.com/intelcrab/status/1573752434098376707?s=21

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This all feels like Boston bomber suspects.

Seems like if this was actually a thing some mainstream media organization would be reporting something by now. Meanwhile, it’s all randos when you google news Xi & China.