I’ve been fuming about this for a while, but like I think it’s important. Congressional Republicans striaght-up refused to fulfill thier Constiutional obligations to vote on Obama’s SCOTUS pick and stole a justice in brod daylight and there was zero blow-back from that whatsoever. Dems should have gone nuts and shot down every appropriations bill ever --just straight-up defund the military untll they approve Merrick Garland.
OFC that didn’t happen.
So now we live in a timeline where it doesn’t even matter. Dems can win the presidency and even keep the House but I’m never going to see them appoint another SCOTUS justice in my lifetime. RBG is going to die soon, no one is taking anyone’s AR-15s without a SCOTUS vote, fucking game over. Campaign finance reform is never happening. Republicans play to win, Democrats play to uphold civility, guess who wins time and time again.
Which is why I think Elizabeth Warren may very well run away with the whole thing and why I think Yang isn’t remotely close to drawing dead. Both are making incremental gains on a daily basis so time = upside for them. There’s a lot more time left and the better candidates are going to use it to grow their support at the expense of the crappier candidates.
It’s not like I think the political ‘market’ is efficient or anything… I just don’t think Biden in particular is doing a very good job of concealing how aggressively shitty he is. Trying to run out the clock with 5 months left isn’t really a viable strategy.
When you’ve mentally deteriorated as much as Biden obviously has, another 5 months is significant, and that’s just until the START of the primary season. There’s a reason Biden is only at 28c despite still generally leading in the polls, I would probably fade him even at that.
My preferred way to bet against both him AND Trump is to bet on the other candidates winning it all. I’ve held a max position on Warren since she was trading for <.10 in the primary and to win it all since .14. My predictit ROI is hilariously good right now lol.
Yeah real shame I can’t use it (you need an SSN to cash out). The markets are hilariously inefficient because of the $800 cap or whatever it is. (I sportsbet for a living).
Yeah anyone complaining about the rake is missing how juicy the lines are. You’re Australian I’m guessing? I’d take your gambling situation over mine tbh.
Australian books are all terrible (very aggressive with banning winners) so the group I’m with mostly use Asian books, but yeah, the US is not a good locale to try to gamble from. Poker sites are generally banned here too though, Stars bans Australian users for instance.
I was super disappointed in Yang’s big surprise for this debate… but apparently he’s picked up 450k email addresses (90% of which are new) and a million dollars in donations, so clearly I have no idea how to do political campaigning in 2019.
Maybe there’s a reason why companies do sweepstakes and crap. Super efficient advertising.
I really doubt any other candidate got as big of a lift from the debate-that-competed-with-thursday-night-football as he did and he spoke like 30% as much as Biden lol.
