The filibuster thing is a serious notch in Warren’s column
3 Likes
Nate is super biased against Bernie. I don’t even recall why, exactly. It’s pretty obvious if you follow him at all.
And here, for a bit of levity. Earlier, Mayor Pete promised a lady who was at his speech at the state fair that he’d ride the slide with her grandson. (Imagine Biden doing that…LMAO)
https://twitter.com/adamwren/status/1161390257251766273?s=20
In other news, the Iowa state fair seems to be EXACTLY how it was portrayed on Veep. Including all the weirdness.
1 Like
Yeah I mean jfc. Clownshoes.
Anyhow, Biden is toast, thank god. Harris will need to be next against the wall. Nobody else is a serious threat.
Watch it bub.
I made the pilgrimage to the metropolis of Des Moines to watch the Chapos dunk on the democrat clown car live. Will report back if I survive.
1 Like
Indeed
Biden has been ‘toast’ since before the first debate. And he keeps having huge gaffes that are going to sink him. But the polls just aren’t showing any of that. He’s still leading easily, and hasn’t really sustained any permanent damage to his numbers. If the field stays 4 or 5 way well into primary season, I think people better start preparing for the possibility of Biden as the nominee.
1 Like
Nahh, he’s done. Bookmark and shame me in a year.
There are yuge swaths of people who don’t gaf what he says as long as he delivers us from this nightmare. I’m one of them, though it applies to basically everyone not named Tulsi
2 Likes
There’s definitely risk, but I think lack of a filibuster will force the GOP to put up or shut up regarding long-term harmful and unpopular agenda items, such as repealing Obamacare and immigration “reform”. No filibuster would be throwing a loaded weapon into the arena, but one I think the GOP would invariable misuse to their disadvantage.
The path to victory for Biden is with the people tuned in fractured how they are now long enough for Biden to win some early states and roll that into victory. I mean if you add up Warren+Bernie now they equal or exceed Biden in the polls. Whether or not enough Democrats will start paying attention in time is the sweat. Absolutely no one who is a “real Democratic” could possibly vote for Biden if they are paying attention.
It’s one reason it will be real dumb if Warren/Bernie and their supporters do not join forces at some point to consolidate their position. I don’t see any way his polling increases from here, so some type of Trumpian victory where he wins pluralities long enough to be virtually unbeatable is how he will win if he manages to win.
1 Like
Bernie and Warren add up to 41c on predictit for yes. I will take either of Bernie or Warren vs. the field to be the nom for 1.1/1 (so you get a bit better than market value to take the other side) for up to $200. Regs can QTB this.
Bernie supporters + Warren supporters > Biden sounds plausible assuming one of them ever drops out. But again, polls don’t currently support this. Polls show Sanders supporters breaking roughly the same for Warren and Biden as second choice, and Sanders supporters about the same for Warren and Biden.
I think Biden’s chances are being underestimated. And I’m not sure counting on him to gaffe his way out of contention is going to work. Not because he won’t have his moments, but because exposure to Trump has immunized the public against stupidity.
2 Likes
I would contend that is only because people aren’t paying attention yet. Biden is the 1st or 2nd or 3rd choice by default because people like Obama. Once they start watching him day in and day out no chance he survives that level of scrutiny.
Maybe I am channeling my main man nunnehi here and being too optimistic but I just don’t see him ever somehow being more popular down the road after people really experience the Biden we all love to hate than he is today.
Full disclosure, I’m long Biden and Warren, short Bernie.
And my preferred candidates are Warren and Buttigieg, and Sanders slightly behind those two.
2 Likes
But this forum doesn’t represent the voting public. Most people never really do pay attention, beyond a few headlines, news clips, or social media posts.
1 Like
Some have started posting on potential convention shenanigans, but with no betting interest I’m not going to use brain grease to form opinions on how that might shake out until much deeper into the process. Biden is still polling well nationally, there is a polls case he’s not doing as well in and might lose IA and NH, but he looks like a lock for SC.
1 Like
I am far from an expert but I think that most primaries go through some phases. This far out basically the only people caring are the politics nerds. I would bet my life that if a poll came out of only die-hard politics nerds (ie. spend 3+ hours per day on it) that Biden would not even poll top 3. The low-info voter class breaks hard for Biden now because of Obama and also all of the “radical socialists” running against him or whatever low-info nonsense they have heard.
Maybe you are right and this never gets much better as far as the voting base paying attention but I think it will. No way in hell Biden appeals to anyone under 60 that is paying attention. I just don’t see it. There is a reason his previous campaigns have been disasters. The guy hasn’t won a competitive election since the 70s. I don’t see him suddenly turning into someone capable of beating the best Dem field in a long time.
1 Like
Define appeals? This “appeals” to me
It’s not one poll, Biden is landsliding stable genius in ~every poll I see heads up nationally or of swing states (tbf, Sanders often comes close), but Warren is always very close, too close for comfort.
Here is another recent one:
(Sorry just abusing the sniping tool here)
2 Likes
Right because more people know who and what Biden is than any of the other candidates. If you literally don’t politics at all and are a relatively moderate Dem in 2019 who would you answer the phone and say you are for?
Those types of voters are the most easily flipable. Maybe I am wishcasting but I just don’t really see Biden actually appealing to anyone who follows this shit.
1 Like