Who will run in 2020?

another positive trump poll out today (a rasmussen number that is not by them), k, I’m just gonna prepare for abandonship and hope I don’t have to.

I just know that if I don’t get you it’s my fault and not yours.

Which is insane. Millionaires shouldn’t be getting financial assistance from the government.

1 Like

I think means testing UBI is a bad idea. That’s partly because I’m on the Matt Yglesias train of “Universal things are good! Look at libraries, fire stations, police, public schools, and think how bad and complicated it would be to means test them.”

But it’s mostly because for any means-tested program, you can get an equivalent after-tax outcome using progressive taxation scheme. Here’s a quick description:

And the general idea can be boiled down to this:

Would you prefer:
Option 1) a means-tested transfer of $1,000 a month to those with zero income, phased out by 20 cents for each dollar of income recipients earn, and financed by a progressive income tax of 20 percent on all income above $60,000, or

Option 2) a universal basic income benefit of $1,000 a month to everyone financed by a 20 percent flat tax on all income.

If one of those two sounds obviously better than the other, you’re getting caught up in the framing because they’re equivalent.

2 Likes

She stole this from Matthew McConaughey

UBI doesn’t fix everything but god damn it’s a start. I don’t think people really understand how stressful it is to live paycheck to paycheck and have an unexpected repair come up and literally not be 100% sure how you are going to handle it.

That is the reality for the majority of Americans right now.

Think about what this means for the next generation of kids being raises. Parents are stressed working more hours than ever for less pay. Even when they are with their kids they are mentally and physically exhausted and don’t show up at 100%.

You can’t fucking plan anything for the future. Your decision making gets worse and worse. You start to smoke/drink/drug/fast food to dull the pain/stress.

We are at the fucking breaking point and everyone needs relief.

For those of you doing well and not needing the 1000 a month donate it to a family in need or a good charity.

We need to redistribute the wealth now. We can’t wait any longer.

Yangs plan is just the start. Once these middle of the road voters see that a govt program is actually working and improving their lives it will start a snowball. People will become more progressive.

The main reason is to give it better chances in any case of a lawsuit. Article 3 of Germanys constitution says that all are equal in front of the law. So in order to prevent discrimination lawsuits you would just give the 1k to everyone.

fwiw Bernie only ran in 2016 because he felt Hildawg needed someone to keep her from moving the party even further to the right and Warren was too much of a coward to challenge Hillary (and/or was looking for a spot in her administration).

You’re a good poster but your irrational hate of Bernie and love of Yang is super confusing sometimes.

5 Likes

Anyone who doesn’t have Liz and Bernie adjacent to each other in their rankings has got something wrong.

6 Likes

Crazy Emerson poll

Senator Bernie Sanders is gaining momentum in the race for the Democratic nomination, increasing 2 points from October to at 27%. Former Vice President Joe Biden is also at 27%, holding steady from October. Senator Elizabeth Warren is in third place at 20%, down a point. Mayor Pete Buttigieg is at 7% and Andrew Yang rounds out the top 5 at 4%. All other candidates are below 4%. (MM, n= 468, +/- 4.6%)

When asked if they would definitely vote for their candidate or if they could change their mind, Sanders supporters are the most committed to their preferred candidate as 71% of his supporters said they will definitely vote for him. 60% of Biden supporters, 46% of Warren supporters and 31% of Buttigieg supporters said the same.

Bernie back to 2nd place on RCP. This poll looks like an outlier but he’s ahead of Warren in 3 of the most recent 4 polls

1 Like

I’m gonna be furious when Bernie and Warren split the vote and we get saddled with Old Man Joe. One of them needs to bow out, I don’t really care who.

This shit is going to wind up in a brokered convention with a wounded Sleepy Joe winning on whatever ballot, and by the time Biden is stammering through his first debate with genius you’d pledge all your HRC 2020 winnings to have Klob in his place.

1 Like

Btw, can I coin Shaky Amy?

Someone needs to get some catchy hashtag going about everyone picking one of them. I think whoever is ahead in the RCP average the day before Iowa would be a good way to decide, but flipping a coin is acceptable too.

This, except that I have Bernie lower down because I’m stubbornly not excited about having another white guy as president, and especially not another 70+ yr old white guy. I know that’s petty.

While I generally agree with the sentiment, I think this particular 70+ white guy is a bit of an exception given his appeal to young voters and his open desire to create a movement that will lift them up. It’d be great if he were younger but at least he’s young at heart.

4 Likes

Man Emerson kind of seems to be for Bernie what Rasmussen is for Trump. Seems like they consistently have him higher than other pollsters.

I have a feeling this is exactly what will happen, except instead of Biden, we get Pete.

Interesting long read about Biden. Basic summary is that at least some of the behavior that is being ascribed to cognitive decline could be a result of a stutter. It doesn’t change my view of his candidacy (do not want), but provided some insight into some of the things that I hadn’t understood about his approach to the race.