hmm, Palm Springs really likes Pete. here’s the whole article with other maps for those who may wish to dig deeper:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/08/02/us/politics/2020-democratic-fundraising.html
Old people like Pete and young people like Bernie.
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I guess I’m old? I like Pete and I’m 34
I just read that the first Morning Consult poll is out since the debates, and as I expected no one moved outside of their margin of error. It didn’t have enough TV ratings to make a difference.
I looked at some stats before posting that and old people really don’t like anyone. Most candidates are viewed more favorably by young people than old. With Mayor Pete it’s pretty close to the same highly favorable rating with the youngest group and the oldest. With Bernie it’s almost 3x as positive with the youngest group as the oldest. The exception here is Biden, unsurprisingly, who is favored by twice as many old people as young. He’s the only one like that. Some people are favored by young people by higher ratios than Bernie, but because the oldest people default to 0% or 1% highly favorable and the youngest people default to more like 10% - so a bunch of the very low polling people are like 10% vs 1%.
And 34 is very young. You are a kid.
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Pete’s base is wealthy people, which is why Palm Springs likes him. From a recent Emerson poll, percentages of each candidate’s base making $100,000/year or more:
Buttigieg: 37%
Warren: 20%
Biden: 18%
Harris: 18%
Sanders: 4%
Edit: Samples are pretty small, so take it with a grain of salt. The number of people polled voting for Buttigieg was 33, of whom 12 earned $100,000 or more. Warren 14/73, Biden 31/171, Harris 10/56, Sanders 4/104.
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heh well the villages skew heavily toward Trump and have since always
I dunno how to post tweets in here, but speaking of the villages, they have their own political cartoonist! Just saw this today, coincidentally:
https://twitter.com/unabanned/status/1157390542399004673?s=20
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In the poll microbet posted there’s no indication of Pete having a big share of wealthy voters, to be fair. In that poll, the candidates relatively more popular among $100,000+ households than any other cohort are Biden and especially Harris. The candidates relatively less popular are Warren and especially Sanders. Buttigieg is in between.
The income numbers correlate pretty well with age. Bernie’s supports skew heavily 18-29 years old and Biden’s skew heavily 65+. Kamala doesn’t especially skew old, so age-adjusted she really skews wealthy.
I feel old. I knocked for Bernie last go-round. This time I just feel like he’s too old and we have more options. I’d still take him over Clinton, but now I like Pete and Warren. Also, tbh, I remember telling friends in 2016 that I had wished Warren had run bc I felt she was better than Bernie back then, too. He just doesn’t seem to demonstrate the same policy nuance that she does…
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I was also pretty high on Harris ‘TIL she shit the bed last debate. Now I’m concerned she can’t be trusted to “prosecute” Trump on the debate stage. Hate to say it, but ORoarke and Booker moves up my list for electability reasons. My recent runins with TulsiTrolls makes me that much more worried about winning than before.
No offense but going from knocking for Bernie to being a Harris fan is legit bonkers to me. Or does being high on her just mean you thought she was a good candidate to win the nomination? Maybe you just really really hated Hillary in 2016?
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Also, unpopular opinion but I actually think ORoarke has the best chance to beat Trump. (I don’t trust him tho). He is populist and charismatic enough to energize the young crowd that hates Trump. He’s moderate enough to not scare off blue collar/African American moderates. Hes enough of a politician to keep the rich Florida Dems onboard. And he has the Texas connection to possibly create a landslide if he beats Trump there (a recent poll puts him +12 over Trump in Texas which would essentially guarantee a Dem prez
I didn’t like Hillary. (Obv still votes for her in the general) and mostly liked Bernie for the Overton window shift. My own risk factor has shifted in the past four years. I’ve gotten married, bought a 3500 sq ft house, and have a kid on the way. The policy/values haven’t shifted but the fear of loss for Trump blowing up the world has, so it’s about electability for me. Harris was demographically wonderful and seemed to straddle moderate and progressive policies…
Who scares them off and why?
Right, her dropping the hammer on Harris doesn’t change this.
It’s insane to me that ya’ll choose who YOU like based on who you think a hypothetical dumb person (your average democratic voter) might be persuaded to like. This is why we never actually do good things.
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