Who will run in 2020?

Politics & News
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I think it’s a pretty big mistake to assume
Biden voters would go to Harris if he dropped out or vice versa.

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eh, kinda? But 2016 no one wanted to go up against Clinton because she had such an insane advantage out the gate. In 2020, no one fears Biden, and Trump seems beatable for ~everyone.

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Imagine if Elizabeth Holmes had run for President instead of grifting venture capitalists.

I think we’re going to have a lot more of these 4chan cult candidates in our elections from here on out. Ron Paul really was the trailblazer, but now his style of grift has expanded in the age of social media.

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Here is how the candidates stand the day after the Detroit debates in PredictIt’s [2020 Democratic nomination market]

  • Joe Biden at 27 percent (+3¢)
  • Elizabeth Warren at 22 percent (-1¢)
  • Kamala Harris at 17 percent (-7¢)
  • Bernie Sanders at 13 percent (-1¢)
  • Pete Buttigieg at 10 percent (-2¢)
  • Andrew Yang at 9 percent (+1¢)
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I think it’s interesting to look at predictit prices not just to see the Democratic candidates’ changes of getting the nomination, but also their perceived likelihood of winning. If you compare each candidate’s price for winning the Presidential Election to the same candidate’s price for winning the Democratic nomination, you get the expected probability of that candidate winning the election if they were the nominee.

There are 8 candidates priced at 0.05 or higher for the primary:

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Each of those candidates also has presidential prices, and the ratio of the presidential price to the nomination price is the conditional probability:

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A couple of things stand out:

  1. Biden is viewed as having a pretty strong conditional chance, consistent with Democrats feeling “I’m not in love with Biden’s policies, but he’s the most likely to beat Trump.”

  2. Same with Bernie, consistent with the “Bernie would have won” crowd.

  3. I’m kind of surprised at how low Harris’s conditional number is - I think she’d be a strong candidate in the general. If I were betting on Harris, I’d buy the presidential odds rather than the primary odds. On the other hand, predictit’s price for a Democratic presidential winner is 0.54, so you could say that Harris is exactly at generic Dem levels and everyone else in the top 6 is better.

  4. Just LOL at Yang’s number implying that, ACTUALLY, he’s the candidate most able to beat Trump. For those of you looking to short Yang’s .08 as the nominee, you should be focusing on shorting his general election odds.

Anyway, fun stuff to think about. General caveat about illiquid markets, variance, yadda yadda yadda.

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Disrespect for Lincoln Chafee and Jim Webb itt.

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Hillary is bearing Beto and like a dozen other candidates on Predictit.

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Probably a lot of that money is Shuffle’s. Dude was 100% convinced that the Hillary “shadow campaign” was on.

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https://twitter.com/ewarren/status/1156988542402355201

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https://twitter.com/therickwilson/status/1157249872929722375?s=21

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What are the rules for nomination in a divided field? I couldn’t find the details on Wikipedia/Ballotpedia. All I learned was that a candidate needs 50% of the delegates’ votes to win the nomination and that superdelegates don’t count on the first ballot.

So, in the following hypothetical scenario by the time of the convention: Biden (30%), Warren (25%), Bernie (25%), others (20%); how is the nomination determined?

Ballotpedia says the following, but it doesn’t say what happens in case of a stalemate:

If the convention is contested and goes to a second ballot or more, automatic delegates will be able to vote and a candidate must receive majority support from all delegates—an estimated 2,267 delegates

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Under that scenario the Dems nominate HRC.

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I guess the answer to my question was in the link to contested conventions: “Most delegates are then permitted to vote for whichever candidate they choose, allowing for input from party leadership and political maneuvering.”

So yeah, HRC 2020.

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However they did it on Veep that one season

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NYT donor map

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https://twitter.com/jthverhovek/status/1157037011057946629?s=21

They’ll probably endorse Gabbard or some dumb shit.

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So I got into it with a troll on Twitter today pushing Tulsi…noticed he was advocating her to run third party and it immediately was retweeted by hundreds of obvious bots. Scary stuff

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Tulsi also pitching on Fox News and Tucker Carlson last night—he actually cut away from the Trump rally to give her time so she could attack other Dems.

My real fear is an “operation chaos” pushed over social media. Rush Limbaugh on his own got 40,000 Republicans in Mississippi in 2008 to switch parties to vote for Clinton to prolong the primary. Alabama and SC, two heavily red early voting states, are open primaries. That means Republicans can vote without even switching parties. In 2016, roughly 375,000 Dem primary ballots were cast. Imagine the harm a social media effort to get Republicans and independents to vote in the Dem primary could cause—40,000 scaled to population would be about 70,000, ignoring the extra reach of social media over Rush, and the added ease of not having to switch party registration—that could singlehandedly take someone from 2% to 22%. The extra media exposure could sew division among D ranks, and when she went third party it could legitimately hurt Dems

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Yeah tulsi has been a Fox News regular for a long time. She’s garbage.

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