If texas gets flipped then Riverman’s 2008 fever dream might actually come true. So we need to be running the best candidates we can there and pouring as much money into there as possible.
i’m a little more optimistic. out of the 28 million people in texas, i refuse to believe there are only 3 democrats as likeable as beto/castbros
What’s Riverman’s 2008 fever dream?
Name recognition is huge, though.
Feels like a trap. Texas is gonna be blue in a generation, but in 2020? I think that’s over-optimistic.
Turning Texas blue would be the end of the Republican party as a national political party, there’s simply no path to victory in the EC if they lose Texas. They’d have to make enormous changes to be remotely competitive. Even turning Texas purple would mean they’d have to spend resources defending their base while the Dems could eat away at other swing states. Again, I think this is a super optimistic scenario for 2020 but I’ll be happy if I’m wrong.
The reason this was riverman’s 2008 fever dream is that a lot of people imagined it happening in 2008-2016, which is why I’m skeptical about it happening in 2020.
Isn’t that when he wrote the “Tragic Death of the Republican Party” manifesto?
True hot take:
Warren/Beto may be the strongest ticket.
Take your pick here of who’s the most high profile:
- TX-07: Lizzie Pannill Fletcher
- TX-09: Al Green
- TX-15: Vincente Gonzalez
- TX-16: Veronica Escobar
- TX-18: Sheila Jackson Lee
- TX-20: Joaquin Castro
- TX-28: Henry Cuellar
- TX-29: Sylvia Garcia
- TX-30: Eddie Bernice Johnson
- TX-32: Colin Allred
- TX-33: Marc Veasey
- TX-34: Filemon Vela
- TX-35: Lloyd Doggett
If they aren’t in Congress or aren’t named Beto or Julian, they’re not a Democratic Texan with name recognition who can win a Senate seat against a three term incumbent. If there’s someone I’m missing who could do this, let me know.
2028 is the earliest I think it would be true blue. It probably won’t be truly purple until 2022 at the earliest.
the new rep of my district flipped the seat from red to blue for the first time in 50 years. you’ve never heard her name. i’ve already forgotten her name. it was a dem wave election, and beto still lost against the worst senator.
beto decided to run for president which was a bad idea because now he’s going to lose twice in a row. vp or cabinet position is his best shot to salvage his political career at this point
BTW, am confident that if Beto were from CA and challenged Harris for Senate, he’d win.
Trump is unusually unpopular in TX, and Cruz would hardly help bring out the vote, so Trump would have to play serious D in TX, which would cost a ton and kill him elsewhere. Could also merge the Warren/Beto donor lists.
I mean Al Green makes sweet music. I’m sure a lot of people recognize him.
In defense of riverman, this was the mainstream view at the time.
That’s quite a bit different than winning statewide in a state as big as Texas. And depending on where you live, she may have had a much easier lift than Beto had.
A Dem wave is great and all, but Texas was still heavily red. It’s not like Dems flipped anything redder in the last couple years statewide except for beating Roy Moore, who was a worst candidate for senator than Ted Cruz.
I don’t hold the opinion that losing a presidential race in a field of 20 is politically damaging. I agree VP or cabinet position may be his best bet, but he’s probably guaranteed a cabinet position if he runs for senate again and loses.
I remember reading it at the time and agreeing so I’m not ripping on him or anything.
She’s never lost an election she was the nominee in that I’m aware of (since 2004), so that’s a bold prediction.
No one said it’s hopeless. I said you’re not delivering any real strats. And it’s true. I’ve seen a lot of evidence of “leftists” (what really only seems to mean anti-capitalist) pissing people the fuck off online as of late. Instead of talking about policy it’s been a lot of incoherent trash like “centrist are the problamm maannnnnnnn”. You may never reach someone who is gonna vote for Biden, but you damn sure will convince them you’re part of the problem right now.
The left needs to be aware of how horrible its own messaging is right now. Like it’s fine on this board, but it goes on in areas with wider audiences who push back.
Disagree. If you don’t get these points of view out there and shame the opposition in this case how do you ever succeed. Incrementalism for the Dems has been complete failure. And not just that but if we fail we can at least respect ourselves. What you are suggesting is tempering our real views in public. Thats pretty fucked up if you ask me.
Imo… This is a perfect reason for yourself to understand that the MSM is a reality show for the upper class to fuck with you, the press and local media, giving the bidens/Pete’s and Warren’s politicians the sunny side up TV.
American media and sourcing is your problem with Bernie IMO.
You apparently skipped my “primary sources” post.
I don’t have cable. I don’t watch pundits. I watch/listen to the candidates and make my own decisions. I’ve been watching Bernie yell his speeches since 2015. Sometimes if I particularly enjoy a speech or interview, I might watch a snippet of coverage on youtube to try to gauge reactions other than mine, but I try very very hard not to let it influence me (other than my opinion of the pundits, rather than the candidates).
My “youtube rabbit hole” is usually finding shaky portrait-filmed cell-phone footage of candidates at fundraisers, events around Iowa, state fairs, conferences, and other wonky shit that the media doesn’t even cover. I try to not only watch the candidate, but also judge the crowd reaction. I’m kind of a nerd.
But thank you for explaining the MSM to me. I never would have known anything about it if not for your sage advice. And thank you for correcting me and telling me what my problem with Bernie is. 