Tom Steyer now has 2 qualifying polls for the december debate and only needs 2 more.
He’s going to be in this race longer than some good candidates. $$$ always talks in this country.
If Steyer really cared about beating the GOP, he would’ve taken every cent he’s flushed down the toilet on his little vanity run and invested it in a slew of downballot races. Congressional races, governor’s races, state houses, the works. He could do a ton of good that way.
That he’s going through with this farce instead shows he doesn’t really care about anything besides massaging his own ego.
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Doesn’t he have enough money to do both?
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I’m pretty confident he’s going all of the above.
Man all the battleground state polls vs Trump today have me shook.
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Biden probably wins, warren makes it very risky. There was a clear difference between those two candidates–the only people that like her are coastal elites/this thread. Forgot the link, probably NYT had it, where like 5% of biden supporters aren’t voting for warren. That definitely can lose to Trump heads up.
Pelosi got a lot of flack here for recent comments–but that’s what she was looking at too and I think she’s right.
Then again she’s the one who started the impeachment inquiry where half the country will give no ****s so lol I guess
They also found out that the vast majority of obama->trump supporters who voted dem in 18 are voting Trump again.
Worse, there are definitely reasonable scenarios where the dem can win pop vote by 4% and still lose.
I don’t want to sound like an “unskew the polls” kind of guy but like - these polls that are “here’s a list of candidates tell me how you’d vote in a hypothetical trump matchup” are basically just like a ranked preference poll. Some respondents are going to change their votes for various candidates just to indicate their preference for others. It’s boring to answer the dem candidate for each question and some people want to voice their displeasure for certain candidates.
Biden’s base is filled with people who are reliable voters. Bernie, and to a lesser extent Warren, are bringing in younger, less reliable voters. Intuitively, it feels a lot less likely that a Biden voter will stay home for Warren than that a Warren voter will stay home for Biden. In the same way, I was suspicious of the idea that like Jeb! voters were going to stay home if Trump was the nom, but a lot of Trump voters would have stayed home if it was Jeb!
Basically I think that hypothetical general election polls are pretty garbage, and I say this as a supporter of Bernie who outperformed Hillary in those hypothetical polls against Trump in 2016. I think they’re meaningless, and they don’t prove Bernie would have been a better candidate then any more than they prove Biden is a better candidate now. (Although Bernie was clearly the better candidate)
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Biden is barely ahead of Trump in FL, WI, MI, PA, AZ. Losing in NC, NV, IA. Warren not ahead anywhere. Sanders barely ahead in WI and MI only.
they’re not meaningless but yes, they’re not all that great a year out al ot of shit is gonna happen between now and then.
Warren’s honesty is backfiring on her hard (admitting she’s gonna raise middle class taxes is a bad bad political strategy, bernie realizes this so he basically dodges that question)
well I don’t think anyone around here actually believed anything other than Trump in NC/IA anyway. IA is only even in the ballpark because of the china shit. warren is never beating trump in FL for that matter. She doesn’t have to but dems losing PA and it’s all but over. They’d have to win TX somehow.
Probably true, but that can more that be made up for in the youth vote.
A Biden nomination will absolutely crater under 50 turnout.
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This is the opposite of what each of them have been doing.
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sigh you are right, some article I read 30 min ago claimed the opposite, I think she stands out because literally nobody believes that. Bernie isn’t making as many headlines with it though and that is a big difference.
The dirty little secret (afaik) is that Sanders polls better v. Trump than Warren in virtually every state Trump marginally won in 2016 except for AZ.
I’m sure someone will correct me if I’m wrong
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You are correct.
Bernie doesn’t ever make MSM headlines. CNN ran a headline a few days ago about NH polling that stated Buttigieg is in fourth, but a STRONG FOURTH without even mentioning Sanders who is neck and neck with Warren. They’re fucking corrupt!
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How in the everloving fuck is this an actual cohort of voters. Goddammit.
I mean they are both lying about being able to get single payer through Congress in the 2020-2022 term. It’s not going to happen, and let’s be clear it’s my biiig issue.
We’ll see how it all plays out. I’m hoping Warren wins the nomination, but that’s mostly because I seriously don’t believe in Bernie’s ability to execute… and I dislike his positions on other issues.
Let’s not kid ourselves here, if we were picking a candidate for the general election vs a Democratic primary we’d all be Yang Gang. He’s as big a populist as Bernie and Warren and he’s a better communicator than either.
But hey he’s barely getting covered by the MSM even though him and Pete gave the best speeches in IA last week.
Seems like a coherent enough worldview of hating the old people who have been in charge forever tbh.
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Gonna agree to disagree on this one, and I doubt many here will share your view.
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