Who will run in 2020?

Warren seems to have dropped a detailed healthcare plan and how to pay for it:

Looks like she’s planning to pay for it by reducing defense spending, taxing corporations overseas, and putting in a financial transactions tax. She’s also planning to capture the money that employers already give private insurers. I expect the amount of corporate spending on PAC’s attacking her, as if it wasn’t high enough already, is going to 10X. She’s also planning to get the IRS to actually collect the taxes we have on the books today, which I gotta say as someone who pays exactly what he owes is more than fine by me.

Realistically enforcement is going to be the big issue with all of Warren’s revenue raising plans… but one thing I will say is that the more of them she puts in the better the ROI on truly enforcing them becomes. The IRS would need to get a LOT bigger… which in fairness she’s for.

EDIT: Also she’s doubling her wealth tax to 6%. I missed that. The higher that gets the more worth it enforcing it is to be fair.

Here’s Bloomberg’s write up: Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Let’s not kid ourselves, this isn’t getting done. The important thing is for the Healthcare lobby to burn all their ammo fighting this and have an ugly Pyrrhic victory… which leads to the Dems picking up more seats, purging the dissenters who took the healthcare money, and finally getting single payer done on the rebound.

I am slightly concerned that this is just like pulling out every tool in the bag to avoid having to say taxes will go up for individuals, and is not a realistic way to pay for it. But I’ll wait for people who know how this stuff works to evaluate it.

That’s exactly what it is, and definitely will not be how we pay for it. In fact the more you look at the tactical situation the more obvious it becomes that healthcare isn’t getting fixed in 2020-2022 no matter what’s in your plan… so it’s best to not worry about it.

This plan is excellent for getting elected… and an excellent cudgel to beat people with politically. That doesn’t mean it has a chance of actually getting done. The wealth tax isn’t getting done either lol.

I actually like that Warren is so comfortable making promises that would be very popular if they happened, but which never will under current conditions. Because if she gets her anti corruption stuff done she’ll be able to get a lot of the popular but politically impossible right now stuff done down the road.

Nothing good can come out of the current system. It has to be tamed and the incentives politicians have changed before we can get anything done right. Doing things half assed because that’s what’s politically possible is how we got into this mess. Warren’s strategy of making long term popular promises that aren’t achievable in the current meta gives everyone the incentive to uproot the current political meta. That’s the whole game basically.

To get healthcare done in 2022-2024 you need to do the following things in 2020-2022: Anti corruption & unrigging elections (the hardest part), getting rid of the filibuster, big popular infrastructure package (should be relatively easy to get passed, bipartisan even… make sure you attach a bigger badder IRS to this as well as raising the cap gains rate to pay for it), legalize weed (very easy to get passed, just let John Boehner write most of it).

You do those things you win more seats in 2022 which maaaaybe gives you a shot at doing the right stuff on healthcare and taxing the rich.

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I mean tbh I really don’t care about the argument of “is this realistic to get done”. I want people advocating good things. Having the president push for something and spend months/years campaigning on it is how you shift public opinion and make that thing realistic.

The reason why it bothers me if she is using wacky accounting to pay for her plan is that eventually we’ll need to sell people on the real thing. And if we spend a few years of political capital getting people acclimated to the idea of single payer healthcare that is paid for entirely by the rich and corporate America, we’re going to either have another uphill battle to convince people that actually that was all a lie and your taxes will go up but it’s still a good idea, or we’ll water down the plan to fit in with the funding mechanism she’s pushing for.

This is why I think it’s silly when people say that it’s smart for Liz to avoid saying taxes will go up to pay for m4a. They will, and it is painfully obvious to people watching that she is avoiding the question. The only way we win on this issue is by communicating that the cost/benefit calculation is worth it.

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I mean she just showed that you can structure it without charging the middle class. The reality is that this thing saves 1T a year roughly. People will like it once it’s in the wild… and unfortunately politicians are the ones we need to pass it not public opinion.

The important stuff about Warren is that she’s serious about uprooting the existing system of public corruption that fuels where we are now. You fix that and it becomes possible to actually get stuff done. Getting stuff done will be wildly popular.

IMO it doesn’t matter at all, since none of these candidates are ramming through any of their plans. If it allows her to keep touting M4A on the campaign trail while being able to answer the tax question, that’s all she needs. Of course she’ll get grilled incessently while the media give Trump’s “Wonderful. Incredible. You’ll see” plans a straight pass, but that was always inevitable.

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Exactly. If the game ain’t fair there’s no harm in cheating.

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https://mobile.twitter.com/JuddLegum/status/1190260692189880320
https://mobile.twitter.com/JuddLegum/status/1190261350624374784

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I wish I could like that post like 4 times. This is exactly what’s going on with most of the anti single payer takes out there. People are straight up getting bought and political journalists don’t even touch it because access.

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I like Yang and think the freedom dividend is not just a good idea, but will become a necessity in the not too distant future. But I’m also curious what you think isn’t achievable about Sanders’ policies. Is it that you don’t think his policies are achievable? Or that you don’t think they can ever actually be passed or pushed through by legislation?

Just for starters I think a jobs guarantee is a truly awful policy idea. Probably as bad as anything the GOP has on offer. No positives to speak of and insanely dystopian.

I’m totally fine with the federal government employing people to do stuff that needs doing, but federal make work jobs are a simply horrific idea.

I also think that free higher education is a terrible idea. Literally pouring gasoline on a fire.

I think his Green New Deal plan doesn’t include the only option that would actually work: a large revenue neutral carbon tax.

I think housing for all is a terrible idea as well. Another example of taking an area that sucks because of how it’s structured and just pouring money all over it instead of actually fixing it.

I also think that he has no track record of doing anything but being generically right about the direction we should go. He’s got integrity and he’s right that we should head left from here. Other than that he has no real legislative achievements despite having a long career. I don’t think that’s an accident.

To be clear I like Bernie, I just think he’d be a shitty president and waste the opportunity we have in front of us. He’s a great activist, but his optimal role is clearly as Jeremiah calling out in the wilderness. It’s an important role to be sure, and I greatly appreciate him moving the overton window as much as he has. His role up to now hasn’t required him to be good at details, which is why it’s fine that he’s bad at them.

Directionally correct but wildly wrong about the details sums up Bernie pretty well at any point in his career. He’s occasionally right about details on individual issues, but he’s usually wrong about most of it except for the direction. Great big picture guy. Which is great until your job is actually executing on something. Then you die in the weeds from unintended consequences your idealistic ass couldn’t conceive of.

Both Yang and Warren have track records full of getting concrete stuff done. Both are excellent at details AND the big picture. First order shapers who can see something zoomed all the way out and then manage the transition from there down to how it gets done on the ground. That’s the type of person who ends up being good at being president… which isn’t the same as being good at what Bernie is good at. It’s not that Bernie is a bad guy in any way, or that I think he doesn’t deserve our respect and admiration… it’s just about people being good at different stuff.

Bernie Sanders is going to get a large amount of coverage in history books as a downright prophetic figure who was a major influence on a whole generation of politicians who rescued us from corporatocracy and managed the transition to whatever amalgam of capitalism and socialism we have in fifty years. He’s going to get credit for being a major influence on every important politician from the last 15 years all the way out for the next 20 years. He can just be that and it’s totally fine. He’s the Captain Beefheart of politics I guess?

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Haven’t had the time to look at her plan yet but what you outlined sounds great.

I do think that a lot people will make the assumption that Corporations/Rich People aren’t going to pay these taxes since they never pay taxes and that it will eventually fall back on the middle class - so she really needs to drive this point home that they won’t be able to escape this time.

Yeah interestingly setting up a global minimum corporate tax rate of 35% like she does in this M4A plan really helps with enforcement. It’s a declaration of war on tax avoidance honestly… which is long overdue.

Okay, as a Liz supporter let me be the first to say that the messaging in her plan sucks. Luckily its buried way down so nobody is going to read it, but I assume she’s going to use talking points from this and they suck.

Option 1: Maintain our current system, which will cost the country $52 trillion over ten years. And under that current system –

Last bullet point there:

Together, the American people will pay $11 trillion of that bill themselves in the form of premiums, deductibles, copays, out-of-network, and other expensive medical equipment and care they pay for out-of-pocket - all while America’s wealthiest individuals and biggest companies pay far less in taxes than in other major countries.

UGGGGGH that’s $11T OUT OF POCKET!!! Not just $11T. They pay more than that because their employers pay premiums for them, which

A) Reduces their potential take-home pay
B) Stifles economic growth, reducing potential future earnings for businesses and workers alike.

You are tying one hand behind your back if you’re going to tackle how to pay for a $32T plan while only counting $11T of the existing costs as currently falling on normal folks. If you’re going to do that you have to be specific about how much will currently fall on them in the new plan, which is virtually impossible… But wait, it gets worse:

Option 2: Switch to my approach to Medicare for All, which would cost the country just under $52 trillion over ten years. Under this new system –

FIFTY-TWO FUCKING TRILLION??? What happened to 32???

And the last point…

The $11 trillion in household insurance and out-of-pocket expenses projected under our current system goes right back into the pockets of America’s working people. And we make up the difference with targeted spending cuts, new taxes on giant corporations and the richest 1% of Americans, and by cracking down on tax evasion and fraud. Not one penny in middle-class tax increases.

That’s kind of non-specific, and it’s just going to open her to the same line of questioning. Also, how many “working people” are there and how much does each of them save while getting hassle-free premium-free coverage? That’s a pretty key selling point you should be pushing, not ignoring.

Let’s say we have about 155M workers (I think the number was 157M late last year, I’m knocking off just over 1% who will certainly be paying for it)… 11T/157M = ~71K each, or about 7.1K a year.

So maybe we want to include that figure in there prominently? Just a thought.

She’s also kind of screwing blue states if I’m reading this right…

Under my approach to Medicare for All, we will redirect $6 trillion in existing state and local government insurance spending into the Medicare for All system. This is similar to the mechanism that the George W. Bush Administration used to redirect Medicaid spending to the federal government under the Medicare prescription drug program.Under this maintenance-of-effort requirement, state and local governments will redirect $3.3 trillion of what they currently spend to support Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program and $2.7 trillion of what they currently spend on employer contributions to private insurance premiums for their employees into Medicare for All

And this is buried waaaaaaaaaaaay down.

Medicare for All puts all health care spending on the government’s books. But Medicare for All is about the same price as our current path – and cheaper over time. That means the debate isn’t really about whether the United States should pay more or less. It’s about who should pay.

Like, Liz, that’s your jam, that should be way near the top.

Here’s another key component buried way down.

Let’s start with a basic fact: American companies are already paying a lot for health care for their employees. They are projected to pay nearly $9 trillion over the next ten years, mostly on employer contributions for employee health insurance and on health-related expenses for employees under workers’ compensation and long-term disability. My idea is that instead of these companies sending those payments to private insurance companies, they would send payments to the federal government for Medicare in the form of an Employer Medicare Contribution.

She also has some stuff in there about how unions getting healthcare benefits would get other benefits (pay increase, pensions, etc) to replace them - the mechanism to force it would be the company either having to pay in taxes the same amount it’s currently spending on healthcare per employee, or getting to pay the national average and give the difference back to those employees via other forms of compensation.

Like, in conclusion, her plan is what you would expect, it’s fine, it would work well. Her messaging on it, if this plan release is any indication, is shitty.

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I want to draw additional attention to this. Human brains are not good at processing huge numbers. $11 trillion is basically an inconceivable amount of money. It sounds like a lot, but most people cannot process the difference between $11T and $1T or $100B and $11T.

On the other hand $7.1K per year per worker is a lot of money, and it’s an amount that people can understand and quantify. That’s a sweet vacation and a healthy down payment on a new car. That’s like free housing for 6-7 months. That’s a winning message.

Also, I would be getting some research done on how much giving each average worker an extra $7K a year would stimulate the economy. A lot of middle class folks would be spending that on entertainment or consumer goods.

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Yeah I have to agree about messaging the numbers into smaller per worker numbers. The good news is that nobody is going to actually read the policy document but people like us lol. And we understand it just fine.

Republican operatives are gonna read the document.

They aren’t going to get anything out of it that they didn’t already have. We have to stop caring what they think/say. We’re at war. We have to focus on how to hurt them way more than we think about how they can hurt us. Trying to play defense in this political meta is garbage.

It’s not playing defense, it’s playing offense poorly and giving your opponents openings.

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This. Even if you’re not concerned with playing defense (it still matters), a bad offense makes their defense pretty easy.