I think boredsocial is generally on target but off on this one. I don’t think there is any rational way to look at what is happening other than a complete disaster for our side. The “shifting demographics” nonsense is just some nun level terrible analysis. Both because none of us will live long enough to see that matter and also because it’s the exact same thing that has been happening for several generations. Newsflash, once some of our liberal friends actually have money they will tend to be more conservative to try and hang on to it.
Then there is the fact that the GOP is crushing at every level of politics right now. They control the judiciary both at the state and federal level. The limited amount of federal judges who are liberal no longer matter because Rape Twins and Associates will just overturn them. The GOP controls some ridiculous number of state governments so courts at the state level are also fucked once you get past the elected judges (if they aren’t fucked at that level to). They have also learned how to effectively legally cheat elections. If that won’t work they won’t hesitate to just straight up rig them. And if you try and challenge that in the courts it will be LOLLawBros time.
The sad thing is that Trump didn’t make any of this happen. It’s been happening for a long time. Decades. Trump has just made us aware that this is how it is because he has been so blatant in thwarting the law at every step. So ya the take that we have lost is effectively correct. Decades of cheating and rigging the system at every level with zero pushback from Dem politicians will do that.
And then there is the fact that our side is effectively complicit as well thanks to Citizens United/corporate money. How can you look at the Dems mostly voting for more money for military, caging kids and the wall and not realize that our side is in on it. So it’s Bernie or bust and even if he wins in a landslide we are about 100-1 to not be completely fucked going forward.
In a capitalist market economy, decision-making and investments are determined by every owner of wealth, property or production ability in financial and capital markets, whereas prices and the distribution of goods and services are mainly determined by competition in goods and services markets.[7][8]
So we’re all going to just pretend that Donald is a totally normal president and that old precedents all apply. Alright that’s one way to look at it I guess. Not a particularly intelligent way, but a way.
GOP support with millenials isn’t even at 30%. And there is no evidence whatsoever for the ‘people get more conservative as they get older’ line. They get more conservative as they get richer… but millenials are getting more and more fucked economically as time goes on, and our defining experiences so far have been student loan debt, paying 50% of our income as rent, and not being able to afford to start families. I don’t think we’re going to turn hard right anytime soon unless Warren wins and actually forgives our student loans lol.
And don’t give me the ‘not everyone has student loans’ line. Millennial’s who didn’t take out student loans can’t find a job that pays more than 15 bucks an hour.
Oh and young people’s turnout is way way up over historical norms for both the 2018 and 2019 elections. But let’s just pretend that didn’t happen so that we can have a really large pity party. I’m sure all those GOP politicians are retiring because 2020 is going to be a great cycle for them.
If you want some fun with the primaries, the deadline has technically passed for the presidential primary sheep, but I’ll take entries (14 so far) until 4pm PST because I’m not going to get around to processing entries until then. I’m planning on the reveal starting before the debate tomorrow.
Trump literally got elected on disputing these metrics. It was one of the things (including that our trade with China was bad for the median American) he was right about and got him over the finish line.
The bottom 60% and the top 40% are living in totally different worlds right now. The top 10% live in a totally different dimension than everyone else. I say this as someone who has been in all three places. It’s very very easy to get into a bubble where you don’t realize how bleak it is for the people who serve us. The bottom 60% is basically made up of servants who are paid the absolutely bare minimum required to survive and absolutely no one is doing a single thing for them.
Just acknowledging that things aren’t good down there wins you a lot of votes.
Nobody’s arguing your points–you’re completely ignoring all the other data. ie, Trump voting block turnout will also be higher than historical norms for one.
except when trump got elected his voters immediately insisted the economy is just fine thanks.
fwiw, I still think Trump siphons off enough minority support to make this a very close election either way and anyone discounting R’s for the future is unrealistic. Especially with that new crop of D voters demanding purity tests and all that as seen on this board, it’ll turn off some people off to vote R.
Yeah that’s going to hurt him come 2020. That’s not going to be lost on those voters.
You’re right about the GOP turnout being high, but the GOP turnout has ALWAYS been high. There are way more Democratic base voters but they are massively flaky… which is why the GOP has relied on low turnout elections for over a generation now. Donald is busy ruining that because he’s a moron by ‘triggering the libs’. Something no wise GOP politician should want to do.
The GOP thrives in a ‘both sides suck’ environment. Being obviously massively worse is bad for their business.
Absolutely no one who leans at all left will vote for Trump after the last 3 years… and he’s a lock to do more dumb shit over the next year. This is a once in a lifetime turnout opportunity for the Democrats that they will probably fuck up by nominating someone super uninspiring.
well that’s not true–at least 5% of Bernie voters will vote Trump in the general election if he doesn’t win the nom (latest poll had 6) and probably 1 or 2% of biden types for bernie/warren.
Those are anti establishment voters not left leaners. I’ve had a lot of time to think about it. There’s a reason why I’m so massively against every single eDem candidate. None of them have any real chance of getting the kind of massive popular wave going with typically low turnout voters.
And I’m also quite certain that the low turnout people are low turnout because nobody is going to do anything for them either way. Try and tell some poor person one new thing any politician has done to make their lives even a little bit better since 1980. You can’t because they haven’t. Local politicians a little bit maybe, but it’s hard to argue that the bottom 60% hasn’t seen every single thing that makes life worth living get worse since LBJ.
WAAF stuff is infuriating. 10 million people will have died in this election cycle (like every cycle). How many new followers has Trump picked up? How many people who voted for Hill or didn’t vote are now saying “Oh man this president is great, I’ll be first in line”? Despite the “strong economy” life isn’t any better for anyone 4 years later.
On the flip side there’s a ridiculous amount of “enthusiasm” from the anyone left of Paul Ryan to get this asshole out of office. There was a ton of people who “couldn’t vote for hillary” who will not make that mistake again. FFS I didn’t vote in my life before 2018 and I will never miss it again.
Yeah Yang and Bernie both steal a ton of Trump voters. They appeal to the anti establishment crowd who basically went 100% Trump. And you know what? They got what they wanted. They wanted to throw a hand grenade at the Washington DC establishment and it’s hard to argue that he hasn’t blown some shit up. Just look at our foreign policy situation.
Trump was a horse head in the bed of the establishments of both parties. Wake up and help out the median voter or the median voter will start breaking things.
The mixing of Bernie->Trump voters and “purity testing” is absolute bullshit. Of course people to the left of Bernie support Bernie. He’s the left flank of Dem candidates. Of course people to the left of Bernie hate the Democratic party. It is a right wing party. But the Bernie->Trump voter is a libertarian leaning voter who hates both parties. They generally rail against “pc culture” and “leftists” almost as much as pure Trump voters. That’s where you get people who liked both Bernie and Trump.
This is right I think. There has always been an anti-establishment vote, for instance it 92 it went with Perot and maybe got Clinton elected, 2008 went for Obama. It pretty clearly won Trump the rust belt.
UK just demonstrated that holding power and being the epitome of the establishment doesn’t necessarily preclude one from co-opting that vote. In 2020 these votes will split between Trump and Bernie if he’s the nominee, and all Trump if not.