I’m saying that because Obama was black, it was a lot easier to scare rural and exurban America that he was coming for all their stuff (to give it away to his people).
Biden just doesn’t move the needle as much. Republican propagandists have expressed frustration with this.
It was always going to be Biden. The incumbent advantage is way too strong. Some of us were saying this 4 years ago.
For such a politically savvy forum I’m honestly surprised that so many on here think the Dems were ever going to, or should, run someone else.
Ok never mind. I guess the realists just aren’t as vocal.
I guarantee you no normie who might be a swing voter, or a potentially unmotivated voter, has any idea what this cookie question is all about. The only people who care about this are political hardcores.
As an experiment, try staying off twitter, Daily Show, the Biden and Trump threads, etc. for a few weeks. You’ll be at normie-level where all they know is that the country is cruising along and nothing too crazy is happening right now.
Normies dont think Biden is fine lol.
Look at his approval rating!
Tell that to people whose rents are going up by 10+% a year.
(I’m not saying that particular problem is Biden’s fault, but this “everything is great” stuff from many Democrats is getting on my nerves.)
Yeah I’ve never understood that sentiment when half the country can’t afford a $500 emergency bill.
That is not Bidens fault of course but calling people idiots for not realizing how good they really have it has always seemed like a losing strategy to me.
Everything Is Great*
(*as great as it can be without making substantial changes to improve the lives of people that might disrupt the current social order)
Yeah, I cant think of a single time when campaigning on “the status quo is great, no change needed” was a winning strategy
Rent inflation was 10% for a while, but it’s back below 5% now.
Not only that, but it’s laughable that the way to combat greedy landlords is to vote out Dems and vote in Republicans. WE WILL PUNISH THESE RICH ASSHOLES ONCE AND FOR ALL BY VOTING IN REPUBLICANS! THAT’LL SHOW THEM!
This is the type of rhetoric that hurts our side.
And what is salary inflation at?
1.3% before bonuses…
sure, absolutely, my point was just “he’s 80 something” isn’t sufficient information to determine that. He’s way more competent than what most people understand an 80 year old to be like. Still below my personal preference for POTUS but way better than what people are thinking about when they hear that.
likewise, I think concerns about him dying in office are mostly overblown, I’m not sure what the actuarial stats are for 80-year-olds but the most common causes of death for them are probably crashing their cars and falling off of ladders, etc, stuff that wouldn’t be a concern for POTUS.
I don’t think most people are concerned about him dying, more that he loses mental faculties.
Like, even the people around him think that he’s 100% mentally sharp right now, what exactly is the mechanism if he starts really losing it over the next 5 years?
Lucky for you, UP’s most handsomest poster is also an actuary.
for 80-year-olds but the most common causes of death for them are probably crashing their cars and falling off of ladders,
For all age groups over about 60 the leading causes of death are heart disease and cancer. It’s been that way for a long time, with some blips like COVID.
The average mortality rate for people Biden’s age is about 5% per year. His will be way lower than the average because he had basically unlimited access to health care, not to mention that he seems in pretty good health overall. If I had to guess his mortality probability over a 4 year window starting January 2025, I would say maybe 8%?
This is more a legitimate question than rhetorical, but isn’t most of the incumbent advantage that the president gets free media because a lot of his job is doing public stuff?
I think some of this mental decline narrative is overblown. But if the president is looking bad in public instead of seeming “presidential”, wouldn’t that negate the advantage?
I also think we live in a new world where net approval ratings are low for both candidates. And lowering negative approval is more important than raising positive approval. In that case, the increased media exposure could end up being a disadvantage.
with the level of medical care he has access to and what we currently know about his health, these also seem like low-probability concerns over the next five years.
a sudden acceleration in mental abilities would be my biggest concern by far, it definitely seems very common for the decline to hit suddenly and be pretty severe (my 85-year-old father in law went from golfing three times a week to extremely frail in like 6 months
