whoever managed to avoid typing WW3 these last few days wins
What if I typed WWIII?
1 Like
Donât be too fast there. It is the NY POST.
Sorry about that⌠Misread that headline lolme
Or WWIIV? Maybe WWIIIVXI?
https://twitter.com/KCMikeMahoney/status/1215021159009443840
Apparently this is what the derposphere is going with. Iran was too broke to afford missiles until Obama made those payments.
1 Like
Im surprised no trumpers have.
1 Like
LMAO at McDreamsicleâs intelligence briefing being so bad that his own congress is implicating him in war crimes against a foreign adversary.
1 Like
This has always been the worst point because we never gave them money but just released frozen funds of theirs.
Because they might just be crazy enough to use them.
I donât think theyâre at all crazy, you donât get to be a country like Iran for decades if youâre not pretty capable at IR. They also donât have a nuke. Apart from some stuff from the ever trustworthy Israeli intelligence - who just allege that there was a site, since destroyed, that was not inspected - thereâs no reason to think they werenât sticking to the deal, so it will be years before they get close. Iâd think that theyâll also do a similar deal whenever itâs credibly offered. They need sanctions relief above most everything else, and the calculation that their missiles are enough of a regional deterrent seems to have only gotten more correct this past week.
Iâd rather there be no nuclear weapons, but worrying about Iran getting them seems pretty low down the list of âreasons to fear imminent doomâ.
2 Likes
Iâm on the fence about nukes. Itâs scary as hell that they exist, and weâre drawing live to a global catastrophe in my lifetime. Over 1,000 years the chances go up significantly.
That said theyâre also the main reason there hasnât been any massive wars between top military powers. US and the Soviet Union having a full out war would probably have been inevitable if MAD didnât exist.
So even if Iran getting nukes makes short term peace in the middle east more likely, unstable countries getting nuclear weapons increases the risk of them falling into the wrong hands over a long enough timeline.
So yeah Iâd rather they not get them even if there is a possible short term benefit which Iâm not sure of.
5 Likes
Thereâs speculation that satellite images demonstrate that Iran deliberately targeted buildings on the bases which contained equipment rather than personnel. Itâs pretty clear to me at this point that Iran definitely did not want dead Americans. It remains to be seen whether dead Americans are on the menu in like a monthâs time.
I find these stories weird, but then I am very far from an expert. The stats on the rocket seem to be reported as an error of 50 meters. When looking up rocket errors, that seems to mean that if you target point A, then 50% of the shots will fall into a circle drawn 50m radius around point A. (93% will fall in a 100m radius).
I suppose everyone should just defer to experts, but that error rate (considered very good for this sort of missile) doesnât seem like one you could draw conclusions about buildings targeted from - especially from just 15 impacts.
Edit - Should say I donât question that Iran didnât mean to kill people, just it seems these stories might be overegging it?
Yeah people doing post hoc rationalizations of perceived motivations is pointless. These morons just shot down a passenger plane but SURE theyâre calculated tacticians firing friendship missiles with expert aim.
Yeah they avoided American casualties by telling us in advance it was coming not by targeting specific buildings.
Both Milley and Pence have said the strikes were intended to kill Americans.
Which makes Trump even more of a cuck for not immediately taking out his 52 targets!
I remember when Obama was a huge pussy for letting Assad walk all over HIS âred lineâ! Emboldening!
1 Like
When the missile hits the center building of a set of buildings, as depicted in those photos, the odds are extremely good that that missile was targeted at those buildings in particular.
How do they know that? Did they get this info from THE DEEP STATE?
1 Like
Yes, that seems fair enough - Iâll happily admit Iâm bad at stats. Would be good to know the scale of the photos, and also if Iran could even know whatâs likely to be populated or not.
Was just looking at this tweet and the thread involved. People also speculating theyâre more accurate that previously known and also that they were not fully loaded.
https://twitter.com/ArmsControlWonk/status/1214936098679480320