Ukraine, Russia, and the West

no confirmation, but there are some pictures from airport in Millerovo.

I don’t really know except to say it depends, and opinions vary. I don’t necessarily disagree with you.

What I mean is you have a certain way of doing that that can annoy people, and I think you know that. I’m fine with it, fwiw. At least most of the time.

russian forces reached outskirts of kyiv. gunfights and explosions in Obolon’

I accept that I’m different and that I can’t please anyone.

Some people just want whatever gets past this crisis with as close to their preferred outcome as possible. I’m interested in figuring out the principles of foreign policy that can be applied to the next crisis as well.

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1497095877286146048?s=20&t=-tmp7iEVTnwcJrvX8cpsvg

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1496977267188281344

i don’t buy that guy’s thread. it’s way too speculative

You mean ‘everyone’?

Yeah, me too but it’s hard and I tend to immediately give up when a clearly unanswerable question comes up. I’m not a fan of a sklansky-like approach.

france announces they will freeze bank accounts of sanctioned individuals.

I’m betting on head fake or an immediate about-face when she remembers that all of her fans are rooting for Putin; but if genuine, I did not have ‘Candace Owens exhibits shred of intellectual honesty in the face of reality’ on my bingo card.

Tulsi, true to form, is beneath contempt.

Yeah, I meant everyone.

I like political theory and political philosophy more than policy wonkery.

This apparently happened because Russians used captured Ukrainian trucks to sneak in.

Me too, except for the politics part. And I could do without a lot of the philosophy too.

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yeah, but i’m also finding messages that those two trucks were recaptured, and soldiers neutralized.

I saw that too, but I didn’t consider it reliable enough to share.

absolutely no idea if real or not but this said the same thing regarding russia’s ukraine plan

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1497086361509187584

rush kyiv, force ukrainin president to sign peace deal on russia’s terms and split it up but they get kyiv + the east. is the cliff notes

image

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Honestly, not a bad plan. I mean I doubt anybody signs a peace plan, but yikes having been wrong a lot, I’m reasonably sure the Russians don’t have that much interest in Western Ukraine.

ukraine’s doing okay fighting in some areas but man, idk if they’re gonna hang on to kyiv much longer, should be near that now

i mean it’s a putin general wet dream to pull something like that off from beginning to end. that’s a knockout victory, minimal casualties, potentially relies on surprising a particular airport. problem is 1) they haven’t achieved any key objectives on day 1, and this is like 99x harder, and 2) they didn’t really start the operation as described. they started shelling and raiding without any element of surprise, and to prepare a landing for 2k troops by air takes a lot more than the apparently insufficient platoons they did send.

it’s like they expected it to be way easier.