Russia going into Ukraine is a sign they’re going…where next exactly?
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https://akarlin.substack.com/p/regathering-of-the-russian-lands?utm_source=url
This is a pretty good article I came across written in February that seems to explain the situation even handedly from the author’s perspective. Anyways, cliff notes is that in 2021 Putin wrote some manifesto that he considered the unification of Russia, Ukraine and Belorussia into a unified greater Russia of utmost importance. And he said any moves by either of these nations towards sovereignty or alignment with the West was unacceptable. And this appears to be the realization of this thesis.
The author also surmises that the main benefit of making Ukraine a satellite may be the
forced integration of 100 million workers into the Russian economy. So basically Putin’s version of immigration to build the economy, and in his estimation at least the benefits from this will counteract any short/long term sanctions from the west.
The author also gives his opinion that Ukraines highest EV move at this point is capitulation, as most of the people who would be most affected by Russian excursion (pro West oligarchs) have already fled to the West, so the hundred million or so people left behind would benefit the most by not fighting.
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He was talking about individuals.
Perhaps you’re not aware that the UK has been very accommodating to many Russian billionaire oligarchs squirrelling vast sums of money away in property and football clubs etc, away from investigators and regulators, often on behalf of Putin who’s probably the richest person in the world in terms of assets owned and owned on his behalf by others.
By definition, brainwashed people won’t recognize that they’re brainwashed.
that entirely depends on how quality of propaganda.
I was aware the US is pretty accommodating through similar means. I would have guessed the UK was at least a little better in that regard, but I’m not shocked that Russian oligarchs are doing roughly the same thing there.
This is a big part of why implementing effective sanctions in this situation is so complicated and difficult. The Russian oligarchs have diversified in many countries and with many different interests, they prepared for this, Putin is the wealthiest of them all and he’s clearly got the stomach for it and ultimately they can’t cross him or they’ll lose even more wealth than the sanctions take from them. Meanwhile, Putin has tried to prepare the Russian economy for sanctions.
It seems like the obvious solution is to freeze and threaten to seize those aforementioned assets, then follow through one tranche of assets at a time unless/until they cave. But that is going to seem a lot less obvious to the people actually calling the shots, who don’t want to start getting the peasants like us thinking about seizing wealthy people’s assets.
Speaking of football clubs, isn’t the CL final in St Petersburg this year?
UEFA should probably move that, no?
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Any government that seizes the assets of Abramovich (who was named in the Commons this morning as being a person of interest to investigators and was floated as a candidate for asset seizing) will have to reckon with potentially losing the vote of every Chelsea fan.
It was discussed yesterday I read, but I don’t think a decision’s been taken yet.
Edit: announced within the last hour that it will be moved
The really shitty part is if the Russians invaded the US, the civilians who own all the guns would be rushing out to cheer them on.
Well, we all have to make sacrifices.
But shouldn’t they gain correspondingly among Arsenal and Tottenham fans?
Ehh, the end result might catch the MAGA folks off guard. Imagine you’re a Russian soldier invading the US and you see a bunch of lunatics with American flags armed to the teeth and dressed head to toe in red, white, and blue. What would you do?
You’re there or in the CR?
Still in CR. But there are a lot of Ukrainians in the Czech Republic (largest foreign born population in the country). So it hits here too.
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The thing I don’t get is the whole country is run by a small group of oligarchs. Why not just sever all their access to their global wealth, markets and luxuries like travel. It would hurt a lot.
Granted I am no foreign policy expert. Lol
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they already canceled it being in russia, this morning. there is an F1 race there later this year also which will be more interesting, since F1 has big russian sponsors.
Seems like if Putin is hellbent on expansion the next logical step is Moldova. Non-NATO, small military, and a big Russian exclave that already has Russian troops.