Ukraine, Russia, and the West

That’s comforting, considering Putin’s spokesguy was on PBS saying there was no possibility of nukes.

Was it Sara Huckabee Sanders?

They don’t need food. But, uh, when there’s one country that launches an unprovoked invasion of another with the express goal of conquest, and people are cheering for the invaded rather than the invaders, and you choose shame those cheering for the invaded as being full of bloodlust, as war fetishists, etc., rather than favoring those who’d take up arms against their violent oppressors, you favor the oppressors. There is no third way to peace here. Either you think Russia should win their invasion, or you think Ukraine should violently repel them. To try to thread the needle and think that there should be no violence in this situation is to think that Russia should have succeeded in their conquest without firing a shot, regardless of what the Ukrainian people, the ones who actually have to suffer the consequences of this, think.

Well, at least the Captains are consistent in denying the agency of the Ukrainians to determine for themselves how they want to interact with other countries and what sorts of alliances they want to make and what sort of government they want to live under.

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Nobody owns a Bellingcat.

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:face_with_monocle:

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Why not both?

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1508576670587895810

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1508576857767088130

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1508577244871999496

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1508577251348004867

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1508577266573348868

Dour thread

https://twitter.com/Tibtinabulum/status/1508629390699241472

This is important, certainly, but I don’t see the war really being won or lost there. The real contest is in Donetsk and Luhansk. Seems like either Ukraine reclaims them, and sends Russia home in embarrassing defeat, or there’s a standstill, and maybe a peace is reached where Russia claims some or all of that territory but then retreats. Most other scenarios I can imagine would seem to result in a protracted war and/or insurgency.

https://twitter.com/AlexandraChalup/status/1508672437495504901

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1508622379685134338

Is Newsmax not all in on Russian treason like Tucker and OANN, or is this just an aberration?

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1508689019483340800

No Nazi vibes coming off this guy at all

I dunno, I wouldn’t underestimate Russian capability here. It seems likely that Russia is going to finish securing Mariupol, then gear up for a big attempt to encircle the Ukrainian army on the Donbas front. WAGery here, but it looks like Russia is basically going to withdraw/be pushed out of the entire northeast, will try to reinforce its position NW of Kyiv to keep Ukraine from redeploying too many units east, then they’ll put everything into a push from Izyum/Mariupol towards Dnipro. Ironically sort of the inverse of Hitler’s last desperate attempt to defeat the Soviets a couple hundred miles north at Kursk, but with the Russians playing the part of the Nazis.

image

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There’s absolutely no denying there’s an element, at least in the US, of seeing Ukraine as more European than Chechnya/Georgia and thus more civilized and sympathetic etc…

That said, they are quite different. Eastern Europe overwhelmingly values the NATO alliance. Ukraine wanted in. It’s neighbors wanted in and got in. If Chechnya and Georgia were in that neighborhood they’d be treated similarly.

If you’re going to whine about US hegemony blah blah blah you don’t get to ignore the geographic significance of an entire neighborhood of nations that desperately want US/NATO protection vs others where the situation is different.

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https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/1508787161021227012

https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1508795729728487427

https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1508796745404268562

1 Like

https://twitter.com/felix_light/status/1508809613289869323

https://twitter.com/AnonOpsSE/status/1508776500367138818

The Instagram general

https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1508793606261420036

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1508819101799563265

https://twitter.com/PaulNiland/status/1508819230287929359

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1508820509873647623

https://twitter.com/konrad_muzyka/status/1508821771050442752

Porque no los dos, on that last one for sure.