Ukraine, Russia, and the West

so i go skiing for a dat and putin has issued another ultimatum??? now ukraine has to recognize independence of crimea? yeahok.gif

seems like vlad the poisoner isn’t going to stop escalating until ukrainians kill a few tanks rolling to mariupol.

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pretty good take on lukashenko

His military, always far weaker than Russia’s, has in recent months lost any semblance of equal standing in its increasingly intimate relations with Russia’s armed forces, according to Western military officials.

“We can no longer make a distinction between the Russian and Belarusian forces,” said Lt. Gen. Valdemaras Rupsys, Lithuania’s defense chief. “Previously only air defenses and air surveillance systems were integrated, and now we observe a systemic integration and subordination of Belarusian forces to Russia.”

Seems to be the plan.

My mother stated on social media that Putin wouldn’t have invaded Ukraine if Donald Trump was president.

So dumb. I mean Putin entering Ukraine to protect the Russian minority is the exact pretense Hitler used to enter Czechoslovakia (to pretent German minorities). Through this rhetoric, both presented themselves as liberators.

Basically, you’re claiming that America’s weapons on the border are making Putin invade Ukraine.This is naive at best and downright stupid at worst.

Seems that you ignored the speech where he questions the legitimacy of Ukraine as an independent country and is infuriated about republics being able to leave the Russian Empire. If those weapons weren’t there, the Baltic states wouldn’t be independent now.

America and the west in general is just an easy target to put the blame on while he begins to put the empire back together. The fact that you don’t see this is kind of shocking.

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I don’t get what you mean by this. Russia’s stated concerns are that Ukraine should never be allowed to join NATO and also NATO assets can’t be deployed to post-97 admitted countries. How can you take this concern seriously while also wanting Ukraine in NATO?

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A couple of issues.

  1. NATO members dont want this at all. A large part of why NATO exists is because Euro members want to draft off the force of the US military to keep Russia at bay. If NATO didnt exist, it would likely cause Euro members to increase their military spending, which Putin would probably not look kindly upon.

  2. Seems super super hard to believe that Putin allow Ukraine to join whatever a non US NATO looks like. His speeches and actions are all pretty unequivocal in saying Ukraine needs to be part of the Russian orbit, not a part of Western Europe. He isnt going to allow Ukraine to sign any sort of military treaty with Western Europe. The longer-term trigger to this mess was, in part, Ukraine installing a pro Western government over a Putin ally years back.

EDIT: 3) this situation would arguably be more dangerous if Ukraine was part of NATO. Possible Russian actions would be different, but if Ukraine was a part of NATO we really might be looking at the brink of WW III type shit right now.

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ENGAGING WITH TANKIES ITT

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Putin’s stated concern regarding Ukraine is that it shouldn’t be an independent country let alone join NATO. He spent the early part of his speech denying Ukrainian statehood and sovereignty.

Putin from 2002:
“I am absolutely convinced that Ukraine will not shy away from the processes of expanding interaction with NATO and the Western allies as a whole. Ukraine has its own relations with NATO; there is the Ukraine-NATO Council. At the end of the day the decision is to be taken by NATO and Ukraine. It is a matter for those two partners.”

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Most members of NATO would welcome paradigm change for economic reasons. It is sort of hard when Russia keeps invading other sovereign countries and their leader is giving speeches about reconstituting the Russian empire. That kind of strikes a nerve given history.

Id be very curious what the anti-Putin side of Russian TV looks like these days. Im sort of skeptical it exists.

I dont think it is rational to argue NATO is a threat to Russia in the same way that Russia is a threat to the Ukraine. NATO isnt a threat to invade Russia. It is a threat to what Putin contends are Russian interests, but that’s different.

I also am still confused over why Russia would want Ukraine to be in any sort of alliance with Western Europe.

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I thought the discussion was where Ukraine’s borders should be and what should be done to make sure the borders are where they ought to be.

When did that happen?

Putin is not a reliable source.

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Looks like Dozhd has been designated a foreign agent by the Russian government, so hopefully can continue operating but have concerns it wont.

The thing is that Putin argues pretty well that NATO is a threat. I mean… Just the refusal of acceptance Of Russia in NATO shows to every Russian that NATO sees Russia as an enemy. Then preventive strike, attacking weapons… It ain’t gonna work as counter argument “You are irrational”. If NATO wants to make progress, it need to take what he says seriously and really address it. Cancelling of diplomatic talks from Blinken is a disaster. Since I started to follow it every move of Blinken is a trust destroying disaster.

Russia isnt, and has never really, tried to join NATO (there was maybe some consideration in Putin’s younger days, but that was a long time ago and a lot has changed since then). There was a period where maybe this was kinda sorta possible, but we are decades past that and probably will need lots of changes internally within Russia to get to that point again. It wont happen again under Putin. It isnt a solution to the current crisis.

If it is not a threat to Russia, then why not? I mean… Russia itself is (was till this disaster) in rather fast development of economic interactions with Germany. It would be good if it went with Ukraine the same direction.

NATO is a threat to what Putin considers Russian interests. It isnt a threat to Russia in the same way that Russia is a threat to the Ukraine because NATO isnt going to invade Russia or Russian territories.

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zara i’m biting my tongue as much as I can but please, Dozhd is an already neutered outlet that is under threat of being taken off the air or worse. Just about all of national Russian media is statist horseshit. Who in Russia can go on TV on a regular basis and call Putin a dictator, or worse, report on the corruption around the regime? No one.

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Yes? Like if the Clinton says ‘no, didn’t happen’, what happens then? War is over, Russia has to pack it up and go home?

Yes.

Also Clinton doesn’t even get to decide whether Russia can join.

Are you WE GOT HIM-ing Putin?

Come on now. Truth does not matter here.