I meant Iraq
Oh, really? I didn’t remember that, but regardless, taking out the Iraqi military on their home turf is a much bigger task than taking out a much smaller invading force that is undersupplied. I guess one potential issue is getting carriers into place. The Black Sea isn’t going to be smooth sailing, and I’m not sure the Baltic Sea is close enough. Maybe they hang out in the Adriatic or Aegean?
The nuclear Armageddon end of days thread is thataway
This is just your run of the mill proto-fascist border conflict thread
https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1503942460585783304
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https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1503918787397046272
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https://twitter.com/jon96179496/status/1503871634830151685
I’ve been wondering if we’d get this. Obviously there’s lots of overly-optimistic chatter out there. But if the lines actually start moving backwards, that will be a pretty concrete sign that the Russian army is in an unsustainable spot.
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Yeah, I think the real thing that we, as internet war followers, are missing is where the Ukrainian military forces are, and, like, sure, we don’t want that all over the internet, but nevertheless that’s the big piece of the puzzle we’re missing. We see the Russian lines on various maps, but that doesn’t tell you if they’ve stopped because they’ve seized a key objective and are waiting for other units to do the same, if they’re stuck in the mud, if they’re waiting on resupply, or if they’re engaged in trench warfare WWI-style with the Ukrainians. Our perspective on the Ukrainian military has been seeing them as plucky bands of raiders with western arms hitting the occasional armor or resupply unit, or as apocryphal tales of super heroes, both of which disappear into the ether after accomplishing their missions.
I certainly don’t begrudge the Ukrainian army for not doing much other than doing the best they can to secure their cities, but their strategy does give the impression to under-informed observers that the Russians are just hanging out at the outskirts before the inevitable battle between an actual military and a bunch of teenagers with molotovs, and the aetheric raiding bands. If the Ukrainian military is able to launch a credible counterattack that can drive whole Russian units back, that would have to make a pretty good impression even on the most pessimistic people here.
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There are maps that show the Ukrainian military positions, like these. He stopped showing UA troop positions after this update, but you can get a good idea that Russian forces aren’t just stopping to regroup. They’re hitting opposing units.
https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1503229523055235072
https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1503229935816740866
I think if the Ukrainian army can launch a successful counter-attack that actually pushes back a line, it will be because of the Russian army literally running out of ammo and disintegrating. Russian soldiers know they can run to safety (as long as they don’t get shot by their own officers), they aren’t cornered, they’ve probably lost 10-20% of their fighting force already (which is supposedly very close to a tipping point), and they don’t believe in what they’re fighting for. So the disintegration could come quick in some areas.
But yeah the Ukrainians having enough numbers to overrun well-stocked defensive positions seems unlikely.
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I am so very much not looking forward to finding out what Putin does when his army is facing a clear loss in Ukraine.
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https://twitter.com/IlyaMatveev_/status/1503789373069877248
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So, how does Donald “No one was tougher on Putin than I was” Trump gonna spin this one.
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https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1503963965042348037
https://twitter.com/mhmck/status/1503965290689880072
Unsubstantiated, but I’ve seen from a couple of places that UA pushed the Russians back from Irpin and Bucha - to 50km where they can’t shell Kyiv very effectively.
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I am intensely curious about what happens.
https://twitter.com/mattia_n/status/1503965600451899393
Something more for you to worry about zikzak.