Ukraine, Russia, and the West

Calling airspace violations a red line seems a little over dramatic. I mean, if some actual Russian planes flew into Poland, I assume they would get intercepted and escorted out of Polish airspace, and I guess they would eventually get shot down if they did something aggressive or refused to leave, but it just doesn’t seem like a big deal until they actually do something aggressive.

https://twitter.com/FilippoGrandi/status/1503756290476101632?s=20&t=Q8_KEEzVMUdmGwqci3z9mw

Russia violates air space and territorial waters all the time, it’s not a red line that’s going to trigger WWIII.

FWIW one of those stories seemed really deceptively told. They kept saying “Russian made drone” but then buried deep in the article was the information that Ukraine was the only known operator of said type of drone.

It seems to me that we should be seriously considering the likelihood of planned coordination between numerous bad actors. Or I suppose of opportunistic alliance without prior coordination as those opportunities are presented.

  1. Russia invades Ukraine. China and Saudi Arabia avoid condemning it.

  2. Saudi Arabia refuses to help with oil prices.

  3. China “considering” helping the Russian military in Ukraine.

  4. Saudi Arabia and China now talking about an attack on the dollar as the reserve currency.

Elsewhere in the world, but not definitive enough to include above:

  • India accidentally shoots a rocket into Pakistan, and also decides to buy sanctioned Russian oil

  • Iran shooting rockets at Israeli targets on/near a US base in Iraq

  • North Korea possibly doing another nuclear test soon

Anything else I’m missing? It’s starting to look like the authoritarians of the world are in the early stages of an all-out assault on the world order led by liberal democracies.

Don‘t you mean

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Early on, the Russians tested NATO by sending a commercial jet to Kaliningrad. The Poles ordered it to divert to southern Poland and the jet complied.

https://twitter.com/NoYardstick/status/1503797349176557571

https://twitter.com/NikaMelkozerova/status/1503795002098520067

Diane!?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-01-29/when-russian-officials-nightmare-your-business-you-can-lose-everything-even-your-life

If a well-connected rival wants somebody’s law practice or tech startup, there’s a fair chance he can get it. Here’s the latest twist on these assaults.

His claims struck a chord in Russia, where innumerable business owners, company managers, lawyers and other professionals have spent years in detention and lost their assets, their health or even their lives to a widespread culture of prosecutorial excess.

One spent a year in prison accused of stealing the intellectual property of leopards by using their skin pattern in the furniture upholstery he made; he lost $360,000, by his count, including his business. Another, a contractor named Andrey Kleshchin, was just released from a year’s confinement in his apartment, where he was banned from using the telephone or the internet.

In fact, there are far fewer cases of political persecution in Russia than of lawless prosecutions that bring down businessmen and professionals who have never challenged the government of President Vladimir Putin. There is even a cottage industry in girding company owners and their employees for a legal assault, the sort of hostile-environment training that executives and journalists working in dangerous places are given.

Klepto-capitalism in action.

In an interview late last year in Berlin, Romanova described Russian law enforcement—police, prosecutors and the judiciary—as a single, predatory institution that lives off looting private capital. The role of the courts is particularly important, she said, because they block opposition candidates, such as Alexey Navalny, Russia’s opposition leader, from running in elections, or jail them when the Kremlin finds it convenient. In return, local authorities are given wide latitude. Now , she said, the siloviki —current and former members of law enforcement, security and military agencies—are turning to businesses controlled by rival law enforcers or affiliated businessmen with access to government contracts.

“Their forage supplies have shrunk,” she said, “so they take to eating each other.”

https://twitter.com/MikeSington/status/1503798167292112896

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Ha. My wife was born in the town Sec of State Seward was from. In addition to acquiring Alaska, he and his wife were close friends of Harriet Tubman, watched her “daughter”, served as an Underground Railroad stop and sold her the land she lived her later years on.

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How much would you pay for one of these?

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What a Dick

https://twitter.com/salon/status/1503823788831645705?s=21

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My company has two paper mills operating in Russia. I guess they could shut them down? But then Putin probably seizes and nationalizes them. They’re assets worth tens of millions of dollars, what are you going to do? I’m sure other capital intensive businesses are doing the same thing, just laying low and hoping things blow over.

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1503776793865732102?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1503776793865732102|twgr^|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.redditmedia.com%2Fmediaembed%2Fliveupdate%2F18hnzysb1elcs%2FLiveUpdate_83d72596-a49c-11ec-b6ae-2271005103c7%2F0

i saw that some commentary that this is a mistranslation. he did not mean that ukraine will abandon joining nato as a concession. he was talking with respect to NATO engaging with military force.

It seemed strange he’d make that big a concession in exchange for… nothing? I mean I’m not a negotiations expert. Maybe need to get Trump’s advice here.

Apparently Trump made a statement today accusing Biden of being soft on Russia and having close Russian ties. He says he wanted to challenge him on it in the debates but wasn’t allowed.