I’d trust Estonians over just about anyone else to analyze Russia. Same with the Finns, Latvians, and Lithuanians. Certainly more than generalists or geopolitical “experts” in DC. (Though there are plenty of good US experts with on the gound experience in Russia/Eastern Europe).
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I’ll get optimistic when the Ukrainians stop the southward push west of Kyiv.
https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/1502451539591454723?s=20&t=rd4LaU40EJBGaooUu4M0ew
One of the best discussion of Russia/autocracy I’ve seen. Good 20 minute video of the interview (will be a podcast soon if you need a NYer sub to view).
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The problem with Russia’s military is that it’s run by a bunch of kleptocrats who’ve been stealing everything that isn’t nailed down. And like Joe Pesci in Casino, you have to understand that the middle-management guys under you are also going to steal whatever they can. So you get this big army full of impressive-looking vehicles that can’t actually go anywhere because someone siphoned off the funds for maintenance and new tires. It’s the reason the mob casinos were badly mismanaged: you can’t but a bunch of violent crooks in charge of a bureaucracy and expect it’s going run effectively.
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https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1502433817465864198
https://twitter.com/prayer4ukraine/status/1502438180401917953
IG ban hitting hard
https://twitter.com/EE_Knight/status/1502452099975725058
Best reply.
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The professor in the David Remnick interview discusses this quite a bit and how the current system in Russia operates.
https://twitter.com/jseldin/status/1502457212618301445
Vlad can’t seem to recruit any more human ammo absorbers for some reason.
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After dark, with adrenaline coursing through his veins, Maksim lay with a clutch of fellow Ukrainian volunteers in a shallow trench, waiting for the Russian armored convoy as it lumbered through wintry sleet east of Mykolaiv.
When the lead Russian vehicle was nearly upon them, the Ukrainians launched a barrage of flaming Molotov cocktails, lighting up the armored personnel carrier so it could be directly targeted with a rocket-propelled grenade.
The tactic worked, recalls Maksim, a welder with a taste for dragon tattoos, from his hospital bed days after the attack. His team had stopped the four armored vehicles, and captured or killed their Russian occupants.
Maksim was so close that shrapnel from the first RPG round struck the back of his skull. His head is now bandaged, framing blue eyes and a round face with a boyish beard.
“The Russians are nothing; they don’t have any experience,” says Maksim, echoing an increasingly confident assessment shared by Ukrainian commanders and officials here alike.
The 22-year-old, who declined to give a last name, laughs when reminded of his own lack of military experience – he signed up just days before, with seven childhood buddies, to defend Ukraine from what has become a brutal Russian assault that began on Feb 24
“I went through all levels of Call of Duty!” says Maksim with a smirk, referring to the realistic combat video game.
The whole article is good
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With most things, people view the world through their own personal prism. So cutting off Russian young folk (e.g., influencers) from IG may have some positive effect. We can hope that it will trickle “down” to affecting their views about their own government and/or the Ukraine invasion. But that is probably a bridge too far.
Yes, which is why the Russians are blocking it.
Are bombs different? No idea, but I assume Russia dropped well over 200k bombs on Syria. I assume bombs are super cheap to manufacture, but are missiles that much more expensive? I realize one has propulsion and one doesn’t, but did the Russians not fire missiles into Syria too?
edit: I googled it and a general 500lb bomb costs $2k and a cruise missile is $ 2 million. I assumed a 50 to 1 difference, not a 1000 to 1. I’m stupid.
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Now imagine looking into the mirror and seeing a different person looking back at you. It fucks with you enough to maybe start a war, if you’re baseline is psychopathic murderous dictator.
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If it can be pried, it’s not nailed down.
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