Posting this again for the day crowd. If this guy is accurate I think this is the one of the few realistic whole picture takes I’ve seen.
Usually if something is off the comments will point it out, or something won’t line up. Nobody’s done that on this thread, and all of these line up with everything else I’ve read. It fills in the blanks on the stuff the Russian army is accomplishing (which is very hard to get in our rabid pro-Ukraine media environment).
This shift in Russian propaganda to emphasizing past civilian deaths in the Donbas is really disheartening. I’d bet anything they’re responsible for 90% of that. But it just shows what they’re planning to do with the rest of Ukraine.
I audibly laughed at your suggestion that conscripts are allowed anywhere near live ammo. Even guards at the barracks only have a knife as means of defense.
During 6 months I shot once, on the shooting range, a magazine of 6 bullets, which is a mandatory minimum, and, for most conscripts, it’s the first and last time they shoot during their service.
I’ve been asking around on twitter about drones and it seems like UKR had 12 Turkish TB2 drones before, and more on the way. Until recently Turkey has produced something like 257 total, but are ramping up and hard numbers are a closely guarded secret.
In any case 12 or 20 TB2s don’t seem to be enough to make a strategic difference in the outcome of the war. They could still strike fear in troops that are sitting ducks while they lay siege to a city. But not a game changer.
So my most optimistic plank for Ukraine is now that Russian troops don’t want to kill their brothers.
I heard a lot of car manufacturers in Europe source parts in Ukraine so that Is going to put additional pressure on the availability of automobiles, beyond the chip shortage.
at least a couple of those drones were destroyed by RU.
it looks like these drones are pretty active at both reconnaissance and can fire four pretty powerful munitions, but potentially it can also assist in targeting (not necessarily used by UA here, just would love to read some actual tactical analysis on this).
Man I don’t want to get too dramatic here but it feels like there has been a decades long global buildup of good vs. evil and evil is a heavy betting favorite.