https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1499400069589602312?s=20&t=_5bkXoYycFgs3juLK7DfHw
That’s true, and I have no idea how easy or difficult that withdrawal would be to accomplish.
It hardly seems like there’s any information at all in this, because this is what I’d expect Putin to say no matter what his plans were, even if they were to withdraw tomorrow. Looking tough and credibly aiming for conquest is not only the best way to achieve that but also the best way to achieve concessions like keeping the Donbas on your way out.
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Putin has to go Godzilla on Ukraine for that notice to mean anything.
i have Finland on the line live, transmitting a response
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That Reddit conscript thread gives reason for optimism and despair. Pretty good reason to believe the Russian army is a grift with everyone down the line assuming they could just pocket whatever because they would never have to fight a real war. Seem to even have “ghost soldiers” like the Afghans though doubtful it is anywhere near the same level.
The “clever” propaganda that exaggerates or builds off of a kernel of truth is just what is used in Western language media to massage useful idiots. The Russian language propaganda is hardcore and as a majority of Russians only speak Russian, we are kind of fucked with regard to them…
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I have a different interpretation of what a realist should conclude about the Russian invasion of Ukraine and its antecedents. I start from a different premise: Russia is not a great power. It is obviously a declining power, objectively so. Its only claims to global power status are its petroleum reserves, its nuclear arsenal, and our collective memories of the Cold War. Take those away, and Russia is no more a great power than Turkey was in 1935.
First of all, JJM says that Russia is a declining great power. So this is firstly a strawman, and secondly, lolololol at the bolded. Take those away? How the hell do you take away those?
The Soviet Union lost the Cold War decisively. Its empire fell into pieces, its regional alliance disappeared, and most of its former allies joined NATO. Russia lost , and the Western alliance won. Given this, it is not NATO’s responsibility to protect Russian state security interests. It is Russia’s responsibility to give wide berth to NATO, recognizing—as every realist should—that the strong do what they will, the weak do what they must. Russian proclamations that it gets to prioritize Putin’s individual political survival over the logic of international relations are nothing more than idealist fantasies.
OK, except the West is powerless to do anything but sanctions because of the Russians’ thousands of nuclear weapons. So how are they the weak, who do as they must? They’re acting with military force in Ukraine and the Ukraine hawks in Congress are powerless to do anything but wear Ukrainian flag pins. Well, some of them also have yellow and blue pocket squares. Powerful stuff.
Having enough nukes to end humanity seems to qualify Russia as a great power, imo.
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Bolded are some interesting parallels. From wiki:
The Soviets made several demands, including that Finland cede substantial border territories in exchange for land elsewhere, claiming security reasons—primarily the protection of Leningrad, 32 km (20 mi) from the Finnish border. When Finland refused, the USSR invaded. Most sources conclude that the Soviet Union had intended to conquer all of Finland, and use the establishment of the puppet Finnish Communist government and the Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact’s secret protocols as evidence of this,[F 8] while other sources argue against the idea of the full Soviet conquest.[F 9] Finland repelled Soviet attacks for more than two months and inflicted substantial losses on the invaders while temperatures ranged as low as −43 °C (−45 °F). The battles focused mainly on Taipale in Karelian Isthmus, on Kollaa in Ladoga Karelia and on the Raate Road in Kainuu, but there were also battles in Salla and Petsamo in Lapland. After the Soviet military reorganized and adopted different tactics, they renewed their offensive in February and overcame Finnish defences.
Let’s hope the similarity ends before the last sentence.
That kinda just looks like a normal day at Ikea.
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The power to end humanity isn’t worth nearly as much when you don’t have the power to do much less than that.
Russia being limited to 1) retreat in humiliation, or 2) end humanity does not give me a warm feeling inside.
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right, that’s why Im hoping the plan (now) is to just burn a couple of cities to the ground then declare “mission accomplished, russia’s security is now assured” and go home. Just some light genocide.
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Yesterday:
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1499073503902973964
Today:
https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1499422158472335362
Street View:
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https://twitter.com/ichbinilya/status/1499321636264325123
Reverse cargo cult. Apparently it will never not be devastatingly effective: Not you, clever people, you know it is all a lie.
Apparently Russian logistics is a legitimate disaster on the push to Kiev. But they’re still making slow/steady progress in the South and East.
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Molotov was a Soviet Foreign Minister whom the Finns ned the cocktail after.